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Bahram Nowzad

As an increasing number of developing countries encounter difficulties in meeting debt service payments, questions arise about the sustainability of the volume of their debt, its terms, the mechanism of its transfer, and any rescheduling arrangements required.

Mr. Richard Hemming, Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Mr. Michael Kell

Abstract

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises? Can fiscal variables explain the severity of crises? And what are the fiscal consequences of crises? Its findings are based on statistical analysis of a large data set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over 1970-2000 and detailed case studies of 11 emerging market crises during the 1990s that focus on structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.

Mr. Richard Hemming, Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Mr. Michael Kell

Abstract

Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial (i.e., currency, debt, and banking) crises. However, fiscal problems received less attention at the time of the Asian crisis, because financial and corporate sector vulnerabilities were seen to be more important than fiscal vulnerability.1 But the recent crises in Argentina and Turkey illustrate the continuing importance of fiscal problems in precipitating crises. Moreover, whatever their cause, financial crises always have important fiscal dimensions.

Mr. Richard Hemming, Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Mr. Michael Kell

Abstract

Financial crises in emerging market economies have been the subject of considerable analysis. This section draws on work to date to provide essential background for the subsequent sections.

Mr. Richard Hemming, Mr. Axel Schimmelpfennig, and Mr. Michael Kell

Abstract

To examine the empirical relationships between fiscal variables and emerging market crises, a large fiscal dataset was constructed. This section describes the dataset and an event study analysis of fiscal variables.

Mr. Kevin Barnes, Mr. Ali M. Mansoor, Mr. Benjamin H Cohen, and Shinji Takagi

Abstract

This report evaluates the role of the IMF in three capital account crises, in Indonesia (1997-98), Korea (1997-98), and Brazil (1998-99), and the lessons to be drawn from the experience. It also recommends steps aimed at making the IMF’s surveillance and program design more effective in the prevention and management of future capital account crises. Annexes contain the three country case studies that form the basis for the judgments for the report.

International Monetary Fund

Thailand is recovering from a challenging year marked by natural disasters of historic magnitude. This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that positive signs of a recovery are already under way with sharp improvements seen in high frequency indicators since December 2011. Executive Directors have commended the Thai authorities for their policy response to last year’s floods, which propelled the strong recovery under way. Directors have also supported the authorities’ ambitious reform agenda aimed at promoting more inclusive growth.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

GDP growth is projected to pickup up slightly to 3.0 percent in 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017, below most other ASEAN economies and Thailand's own historical record. Weak domestic and external demand, coupled with volatile global financial conditions, will remain headwinds, while structural bottlenecks weigh on potential growth. Inflation is expected to remain low in the foreseeable future.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.