The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Nigeria’s 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that major macroeconomic imbalances had emerged as a result of sharp increases in government spending and expressed concern at the risks of a further acceleration of inflation and continuing instability in the exchange market. The overall fiscal balance deteriorated sharply in 2001, the external accounts worsened, and inflation accelerated. The overall stance of fiscal policy remains highly expansionary in 2002, notwithstanding efforts by the authorities to contain capital spending. Lax financial policies have led to a sharp fall in international reserves.
This paper examines ways to summarize the maturity structure of public debts using a small number of parameters. We compile a novel dataset of all promised future payments for US and UK government debt from every month since 1869, and more recently for Peru, Poland, Egypt, and Nigeria. We show that there is a unique parametric form which does not arbitrarily restrict debt issuance – portfolios of bonds with exponential coupons. Compared to the most popular alternative, this form 1) more accurately describes changes in debt maturity for these six countries and 2) gives a quite different interpretation of historical debt maturity. Our work can be applied not just to analyze past debt movements, but – because parameter estimates are relatively similar across countries – also for monitoring changes in debt maturity, including in countries where data are partial or incomplete.
La croissance reste vigoureuse dans la région en 2012, la plupart des pays connaissant une hausse de leur PIB (à l'exclusion du Nigéria et de l'Afrique du Sud). Les projections indiquent une accélération modeste mais généralisée de la croissance, qui devrait s'établir à 5,5 % en 2013 2014, en raison d'un renforcement progressif de l'économie mondiale et d'une demande intérieure robuste. L'investissement dans les secteurs axés sur les exportations demeure un moteur important de l'économie, et le rebond de la production agricole dans les régions touchées par la sécheresse contribuera également à la croissance. Les incertitudes qui pèsent sur l'économie mondiale constituent le principal risque pour les perspectives de la région, mais les éventuels chocs négatifs n'auraient probablement qu'un impact mesuré sur les résultats globaux de la région.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper analyzes the effect of rapid inflation on a country’s international position. The paper highlights that when prices and costs in any country rise rapidly, goods produced in the country soon become more expensive than similar goods produced abroad. Unless the exchange rate changes, this encourages imports and discourages exports. As prices in a country rise more rapidly than in the rest of the world, individuals in that country tend to turn from buying these increasingly expensive products of their own industries to the relatively cheaper foreign goods.
Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 5½ percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.
The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa
continues to strengthen with higher growth, easing inflation, and stabilizing public debt ratios
with some countries improving their fiscal balances. But there are concerns on the quality of the
fiscal adjustment and underlying vulnerabilities have yet to be decisively addressed.
The macroeconomic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa continues to strengthen. Growth is expected to increase from 2.7 percent in 2017 to 3.1 percent in 2018, reflecting domestic policy adjustments and a supportive external environment, including continued steady growth in the global economy, higher commodity prices, and accommodative external financing conditions. Inflation is abating; and fiscal imbalances are being contained in many countries. Over the medium term, and on current policies, growth is expected to accelerate to about 4 percent, too low to create the number of jobs needed to absorb anticipated new entrants into labor markets.