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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

WHAT early warning signals should policymakers heed to avoid a repeat of a Mexico-type reversal of private capital flows? Experience suggests that a combination of indicators can provide powerful hints of approaching problems.

CARMEN M. REINHART

Devaluation is an integral part of adjustment in many developing countries, particularly relied upon by countries facing large external imbalances. A devaluation can only reduce trade imbalances if it translates to a real devaluation and if trade flows respond to relative prices in a significant and predictable manner. However, a recent strand in the empirical trade literature has questioned the existence of a stable relationship between trade flows and its traditional determinants, This paper re–examines the relationship between relative prices and imports and exports in a sample of 12 developing countries.

Albert Waterston

This paper discusses the project financed by the World Bank for controlling the flow of the Chao Phya River in Thailand. Chao Phya is the lifestream of the Thai people. However, this river, and its principal tributaries are, in their natural state, capricious rivers. In the early 1950s, the World Bank began assisting the Thai government in a series of projects designed to break this ancient tyranny of the rivers’ violent changes. The paper describes how the river is being tamed for irrigation and navigation, and how they are providing electric power and other benefits.