This paper describes economic developments in Denmark during 1990–96. After a prolonged period of stagnation in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s, GDP rose by 4¼ percent in 1994, reflecting a surge in domestic demand and recovery in export markets. The expansion of GDP slowed to a 2¾ percent pace in 1995 as domestic demand moderated and as exports decelerated sharply. The slowing of external markets intensified in the course of 1995 with the result that GDP in the fourth quarter was barely above its first quarter level.
This paper examines the selected issues related to the economy of Denmark: divergence in house prices, house prices in Denmark's cities, macroprudential policies, and product market reform and firm productivity. Recent house price developments in Denmark have been characterized by a growing divergence between different parts of the country, with big cities experiencing much more rapid price increases than other parts. House price booms and busts in Denmark, like in many other countries, are a big-city phenomenon. Macroprudential policies can help contain risks for households, the financial system, and the broader economy, but they should be carefully calibrated to avoid an undue drag on growth.
This paper discusses the economic performance of Denmark. Although Denmark has a longstanding track record of sound economic and social policies, economic performance has been relatively weak for an extended period. The economy continues to grow slowly. After recording 1.3 percent growth in 2014, the economy grew by 1.2 percent in 2015, driven mostly by private consumption on the back of rising employment and real incomes. However, relatively strong performance in the first half of the year was partly undone by flagging exports in the second half of the year. Denmark has consistently run current account surpluses in recent decades, mostly reflecting structurally high retirement savings in the context of its funded pension system.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the current account performance of Denmark in 1993–98. The paper presents a brief review of structural features of the external current account. It looks at the decline in export market share and concludes that it reflects primarily cyclical factors and the unwinding of an unsustainable export market gain immediately after the German unification. The paper also examines implications for fiscal policy of Denmark’s decision to remain for the time being outside the European Monetary Union.
The paper discusses the purpose, properties, and theoretical foundations of various indicators of inflation and also describes the forecasting methodology and performance of these indicators. It reviews the successful European labor market reform experiences and analyzes regulatory and supervisory frameworks in the European Union (EU), and assessments carried out under the IMF-World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). It also investigates whether the cross-country correlation of bank business in Europe makes a good case for pan-European supervision.
The paper discusses the flexicurity model, its key policy elements, and association with a low unemployment rate and a high standard of social security for the unemployed. It provides details of an empirical analysis of unemployment performance and the flexicurity model. It also presents selected stylized facts about Danish housing price developments and focuses on tax treatment affecting the market. It also shows an empirical result on developments in the housing finance market and in the Danish taxation of housing.
This Selected Issues paper for Denmark shows that a demographic shift will have several impacts on the economy. The decline in the relative size of the labor force will result in relatively fewer goods produced. This effect will be particularly strong, because a large portion of the current baby-boomers are in their peak earning years, and their retirement will have a dramatic effect on productivity and on overall production. Demark has imposed a restrictive policy requiring that immigrants prove they have a job that meets wage and working condition standards before getting a work permit.
This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments, the ERM money supply performs at least as well, and arguably better, than the individual national aggregates in predicting nominal aggregates such as inflation and the price level, while neither money supply is a good predictor of real activity.
This paper attempts to provide a perspective on real exchange rate developments following the inception of the EMS. The focus is on structural determinants of real exchange rates, notably the behavior of tradables and nontradable prices and productivity. It is found that changes in the relative price of tradable goods in terms of nontradables account for a sizable fraction of real exchange rate dynamics during the EMS period. Sectoral productivity growth differential help explain the behavior of the relative price of tradable goods, especially in the long run. There is also some evidence that the EMS has extended on relative price behavior.