The Selected Issues paper analyzes the determinants of growth in Albania, the macroeconomic underpinnings for growth, the role of remittances in the economy, and the policy response to rapid credit growth. It also analyzes the official estimates with estimates from various macroeconomic surveys, and discusses the implications for the structure of the balance of payments. It also provides a framework for analyzing the budgetary impact of remittances in Albania, and examines the acceleration of credit growth and the policy options available to address the resulting macroeconomic and prudential concerns.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On October 4, 2016 Haiti was struck by Hurricane Matthew, a strong Category 4 hurricane, which caused substantial loss of life and severe damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture. Total damage and loss is estimated at about US$1.9 billion, or about 23 percent of GDP. The impact has plunged Haiti into a new humanitarian crisis-7 years after a magnitude 7.0 earthquake ravaged Port-au-Prince-leaving an estimated 1.4 million people in need of urgent assistance. The hurricane forced a delay in the first round of the Presidential election, now scheduled for November 20.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Haiti’s external competitiveness. The analysis shows that the country has been experiencing equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation pressures, which have originated more recently from the rising inflow of transfers. The paper discusses avenues for further developing Haiti’s monetary policy framework to help consolidate a stable low-inflation environment and support deepening domestic financial markets. The analysis suggests that Haiti’s monetary policy regime could be strengthened through a two-step approach. The paper also focuses on options to increase domestic revenues as a means of funding priority expenditures.
The economy of Haiti is recovering despite the challenging international and domestic environments. The FY2011 budget appropriately supports the reconstruction objectives in a context of sustainable public financing. Monetary policy remains geared toward keeping inflation in the single digits. The structural reform agenda continues to focus on improving the business climate and promoting private sector-led growth. International assistance is critical to recovering from the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Reconstruction is under way, albeit at a slower pace than envisaged. The humanitarian response from donors to the earthquake was quick and sizable.
This paper focuses on the 2005 Article IV Consultation and Review of the Program Supported by Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance for Haiti. Economic and social conditions in Haiti deteriorated significantly during the early 2000, as the continued political stalemate undermined external financial support and private investment, and structural reforms came to a halt. This resulted in economic stagnation, high inflation, and widespread unemployment. The political turmoil in early 2004 and the devastating floods in May and September compounded these difficulties and led to a contraction of real GDP by 3¾ percent in 2003/04.
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the transitional government that took over in Haiti following President Aristide’s departure in February 2004 implemented prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and significantly improved governance and transparency in public sector operations. These efforts were supported by an IMF staff-monitored program and two successive arrangements under the Emergency Post Conflict Assistance (EPCA) facility between mid-2004 and late-2006. Executive Directors viewed that the key challenge in future will be to consolidate stabilization gains while establishing higher, sustained growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Significant progress has been made in Haiti to safeguard macroeconomic stability after the January 2010 earthquake. However, the pace of the reconstruction has been slow and the business environment remains unattractive. Further development and strengthening social safety nets are essential. The monetary policy stance is appropriate and continuing commitment to exchange rate flexibility is appreciated. Improving the business environment is important to raise productivity, enhance competitiveness, and achieve higher and more inclusive growth.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note focuses on the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) for Haiti. The I-PRSP outlines the main areas of actions envisaged by the authorities to reduce poverty as well as the steps to be undertaken in the preparation of the full Poverty Reduction Strategy. The I-PRSP presents a good diagnostic of the current dimensions of poverty in Haiti. It also covers well the authorities’ macroeconomic objectives and the broad measures necessary to reach these objectives.
A key challenge of the macroeconomic program is to increase domestic revenue mobilization to help support the higher levels of public spending for investment and basic services. For the current fiscal year, the authorities are developing a supplemental budget to reprogram existing budgetary resources in line with identified poverty reduction strategy priorities. The section on democratic governance presents a forthright analysis and detailed reform program for the justice and security sectors. Private investment in tourism will require improvements in the security situation.