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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

This chapter was prepared by a team led by Seung Mo Choi and comprising Michael Gorbanyov, Cleary Haines, Siddharth Kothari, Andresa Lagerborg, Nkunde Mwase, Malika Pant, and Torsten Wezel, under the supervision of Papa N’Diaye and Catriona Purfield.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

After slowing in 2012, global growth is projected to pick up during 2013–14, supported by policy actions in advanced economies that have helped mitigate downside risks. The global economy is expanding at three different speeds, with the emerging economies growing rapidly, activity in the United States gaining momentum, and Europe continuing to lag as it struggles with balance sheet repair. In this context, external financing conditions are expected to remain easy and commodity prices near their current high levels in the coming years. However, these conditions could reverse over the medium term, including if advanced economies do not decisively deal with unsustainable debt dynamics or if growth falters in key emerging economies.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

This chapter was prepared by a team led by Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and comprising Reda Cherif, Sandesh Dhungana, Xiangming Fang, Miguel Pereira Mendes, Yuanchen Yang, Mustafa Yenice, and Jung Eun Yoon, under the supervision of Mahvash Qureshi and David Robinson.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Output growth in Latin America firmed up toward the end of 2012, after moderating earlier in the year, particularly in some of the region’s largest economies. In most economies, domestic demand remained robust and external current account deficits widened further. Growth is set to pick up further in 2013, supported by stronger external demand. In the context of closed output gaps and relatively easy financing conditions, key policy priorities are strengthening public finances and protecting financial sector stability. In the Caribbean, growth continues to be held back by high debt levels and weak competitiveness.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

This chapter was prepared by a team coordinated by Samuel Delepierre, Alexander Massara, and David Stenzel, composed of Moez Ben Hassine, Krisztina Fabo, Hoda Selim, and Martha Woldemichael, with input from Jean Portier and Samuele Rosa and research assistance from Yanki Kalfa, under the supervision of Said Bakhache and Catriona Purfield.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Latin America has enjoyed strong growth momentum during the last decade. While factor accumulation remains the main driver of GDP growth, the recent acceleration is mainly explained by higher total factor productivity (TFP). However, moving forward, this growth momentum might not be sustainable given some natural constraints on labor, despite recent capital and TFP trends.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Highly favorable terms of trade and external financing conditions have helped Latin America strengthen its fiscal and external fundamentals markedly over the last decade. But, how dependent are these gains on a continuation of such conditions? This chapter assesses debt sustainability under less favorable external scenarios. It finds that, while some countries are well placed to withstand sizeable shocks, many would benefit from a stronger fiscal position to be able to deploy countercyclical policies, especially under tail events. External sustainability, in turn, does not appear to be a source of concern for most countries yet.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain at 3.2 percent in 2019 and rise to 3.6 percent in 2020. Growth is forecast to be slower than previously envisaged for about two-thirds of the countries in the region. The downward revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

A pesar de algunos riesgos mundiales, seguramente las condiciones externas seguirán siendo propicias para América Latina. Dado que se espera que en las economías avanzadas se mantenga una política monetaria laxa durante algún tiempo, las condiciones de financiamiento externo seguirán siendo favorables. El dinamismo de la demanda en las economías emergentes de Asia y la recuperación gradual en las economías avanzadas continuarán apuntalando los precios de las materias primas, lo que beneficiará a los países que las exportan. Para la mayoría de los países de la región, el principal desafío de política económica es aprovechar las condiciones actuales para seguir consolidando las bases para un crecimiento sostenido. Para la región también es importante: i) fortalecer los balances; ii) comprender de qué manera la modificación de las condiciones externas podría incidir en la dinámica de la deuda pública y la deuda externa, y iii) aprovechar los ingresos extraordinarios resultantes del reciente auge de los términos de intercambio.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Despite some global risks, external conditions for Latin America should remain stimulative. With monetary policy in advanced economies expected to stay accommodative, external financing conditions will remain favorable. Strong demand from emerging Asian economies and the gradual recovery of advanced economies will continue to support commodity prices, benefiting exporters. The main policy challenge for most of the region is to take advantage of current conditions to continue buttressing a foundation for sustained growth. Other issues important to the region include: (i) strengthening balance sheets; (ii) understanding how changes in external conditions could impact public and external debt dynamics; and (iii) making the best use of the windfall from the recent terms-of-trade boom.