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Mr. James Roaf, Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, Mr. Bikas Joshi, and Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski

Abstract

In the mid-1980s, few would have imagined the dramatic changes that were about to engulf Central and Eastern Europe, notwithstanding the initial steps towards modernization introduced in the Soviet Union by the programs of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (restructuring). Nor would they have guessed the speed of these changes: by the end of 1991 the political landscape was unrecognizable from just three years earlier.

Mr. James Roaf, Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, Mr. Bikas Joshi, and Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski

Abstract

Most countries faced extreme difficulties during the first years of transition. Output fell dramatically across the board as trade links and internal economic relationships were broken. Inflation skyrocketed as price and foreign exchange controls were removed. The countries with better initial conditions and more aggressive approaches to reform reached stabilization faster. In several other countries, however, conflict or institutional obstacles to market reforms exacerbated the transition challenges.

Mr. James Roaf, Mr. Ruben V Atoyan, Mr. Bikas Joshi, and Mr. Krzysztof Krogulski

Abstract

After the fall of communism, monetary policy had to take on a more active role, requiring policy and institutional changes, including the establishment of independent central banks. A key choice was whether to use monetary aggregates or fixed exchange rates as the basis for the initial stabilization following price liberalization. Most countries later moved away from their initial choice of nominal anchor, eventually tending towards inflation targeting, hard exchange rate pegs, or euro adoption, with a diminishing number of intermediate regimes.

International Monetary Fund

The external sector has an increasing drag on the economy. The current account deficit remains fully financed by FDI, and the underlying balance is consistent with external-debt stabilizing levels. The stock market retrenchment has been severe, but it followed substantial gains since 2006. Stress tests show that resilience of the banking system is well capitalized and highly profitable. Executive Directors stressed that the key to boosting long-term growth will be to increase low labor market participation. The financial supervision authority should give priority to formalizing understandings.

International Monetary Fund

The external sector has an increasing drag on the economy. The current account deficit remains fully financed by FDI, and the underlying balance is consistent with external-debt stabilizing levels. The stock market retrenchment has been severe, but it followed substantial gains since 2006. Stress tests show that resilience of the banking system is well capitalized and highly profitable. Executive Directors stressed that the key to boosting long-term growth will be to increase low labor market participation. The financial supervision authority should give priority to formalizing understandings.

International Monetary Fund
This paper provides three policy lessons to take full advantage of the opportunity afforded by EU funds. The main features of the global integrated monetary and fiscal (GIMF) model and how it was modified to account for income convergence are discussed. The impact of EU funds as exhibited in the model and highlights potential risks related to the authorities’ policy choices, in particular in the fiscal area, are also discussed. The macroeconomic literature on the impact of EU funds can be divided into broad groups: model simulations and econometric studies.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s economy is steadily recovering from the 2012–2013 slowdown on the back of Poland’s very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6 percent in 2013 as the slowdown in core euro area countries had knock-on effects on consumer and investor confidence. However, a steady recovery is now under way. The outlook is for a continuing recovery, but external risks remain firmly on the downside. Growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 but strong trade and financial linkages with core euro area countries make it vulnerable to growth shocks.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes current developments and outlook for inflation in the Czech Republic. Inflation in the Czech Republic has fallen substantially since peaking in the double digits in 1998. The crisis-led depreciation of the koruna in mid-1997 pushed year-over-year inflation to more than 13 percent. The paper presents the IMF staff analysis that shows that without interest rate increases, inflation is likely to begin to rise above the midpoint of the Czech National Bank’s target in mid-2005. The paper also analyzes the Czech labor market in a cross-country perspective.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the driving factors for the broad movements of investment over the past decade in Poland. After booming for half a decade, Poland’s investment plummeted during 2001–03 and has recovered only marginally since then. The paper provides a historical perspective on the evolution of economywide and sectoral investment in Poland, and briefly summarizes possible determinants of investment. It analyzes the determinants of investment more systematically using panel regressions based on sectoral data, and reports the results of in-sample and out-of-sample simulations.