International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Sixth Five Year Plan, as outlined in Bangladesh's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, targets strategic growth and employment. The medium-term macroeconomic framework plan entails the involvement of both the private and public sectors. Human resources development strategy programs reaching out to the poor and the vulnerable population, as well as environment, climate change, and disaster risk management, have been included in the plan. Managing regional disparities for shared growth and strategy for raising farm productivity and agricultural growth have been outlined. Diversifying exports and developing a dynamic manufacturing sector are all inclusive in the proposed plan.
Heightened expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy; a downgrading of the long-run earnings potential of the technology, media, and telecom sector; and a deterioration in U.S. credit markets all took their toll on emerging bond and equity markets in the last quarter of 2000. In addition to analyzing the consequences of these developments, the latest issue of Emerging Market Financing, which is published quarterly and forms part of the IMF’s surveillance over international capital markets, also discusses the outlook for emerging market financing this year and the potential risks, notably those that would be engendered if the U.S. economy were to slow sharply. The report also examines episodes of contagion and periods of drought in emerging bond markets—two salient features of emerging markets financing.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper summarizes achievements of the authorities to date and describes several options to support their ongoing efforts. The economic impact of climate change on Bangladesh is likely to become more pronounced. The outlook for Bangladesh is a source of concern, with experts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting that a rise in sea levels and coastal erosion could lead to a loss of 17 percent of land surface and 30 percent of food production by 2050. Responding effectively to the impact of climate change depends on designing an appropriate set of fiscal policies. These can play a key role in mobilizing both public and private sources of finance for mitigation and adaptation activities. A second priority for Bangladesh is to raise domestic revenue from its current low base, including through introduction of a carbon tax. By helping establish a predictable price for carbon emissions, carbon taxes also provide clear incentives to promote investments in emissions-saving technologies. Although opponents argue that such taxes harm economic activity and slow job creation, the revenue they generate may over time be used to reduce other distorting taxes on labor and capital.
This paper reviews the significant macro-fiscal challenges posed by climate change in
Djibouti and the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies. The paper concludes that
Djibouti is susceptible to climate change and related costs are potentially large. Investing
now in adaptation and mitigation has large benefits in terms of reducing the related costs in
the future. Reforms to generate the fiscal space are therefore needed and investment for
mitigation and adaptation to climate change should be built into the long-term fiscal
projections. Finally, concerted international efforts and stepping up regional cooperation
could help moderate climate-related macro-fiscal risks.
Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
The key to arresting current degradation of upland catchment areas lies in enabling farmers to establish appropriate farming practices combined with physical measures to check erosion and flooding. Reforestation is, in many situations, only a partial solution. A broader approach is needed.
Satellite photography may turn out to be a major technological breakthrough in resources surveys. The author describes an international experiment, for which a satellite is about to be launched, and considers how less developed countries, in particular, can participate in and benefit from this new technology.
Mrs. Mai Farid, Mr. Michael Keen, Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, Ian W.H. Parry, Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, and Anna Ter-Martirosyan
This paper discusses the implications of climate change for fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic policies. Most pressing is the use of carbon taxes (or equivalent trading systems) to implement the emissions mitigation pledges submitted by 186 countries for the December 2015 Paris Agreement while providing revenue for lowering other taxes or debt. Carbon pricing in developing countries would effectively mobilize climate finance, and carbon price floor arrangements are a promising way to coordinate policies internationally. Targeted fiscal measures that are tailored to national circumstances and robust across climate scenarios are needed to counter private sector under-investment in climate adaptation. And increased disclosure of carbon footprints, stress testing of asset values, and greater proliferation of hedging instruments, will facilitate low-emission investments and climate risk diversification through financial markets.