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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

With strong policy action to contain sovereign debt problems in the euro area, the recovery continues. But lingering uncertainties and market pressures make for moderate and unequal growth across advanced Europe. In the short term, in addition to dealing with weak banks and supportive monetary policy, this calls for credible fiscal consolidation, adjusted to country needs and designed to minimize the impact on growth. It will be just as important to address the governance issues revealed by the crisis. Better fiscal frameworks at the national and the EU levels will enhance the credibility of fiscal adjustment. And energizing and coordinating structural policies should help sustain and balance growth, supporting public finances in the longer term. Although the political economy of such reforms is complicated, they promise a much stronger Europe. Policymakers should seize the moment and act boldly.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Growth is strengthening and broadening across Europe, driven by buoyant domestic demand (Figure 1.1). Following a pickup in economic activity in the second half of 2016, the European economy accelerated further in the first half of 2017, with growth outcomes surprising on the upside in most countries.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The global economy continues to expand, though heterogeneity and downside risks persist. The recovery in most advanced economies—where output remains below trend—is proceeding only gradually, and will continue to be constrained by the need to repair household, government, and financial sector balance sheets. Growth in emerging economies remains robust fueled by favorable external conditions, yet policies need to be tightened to avoid overheating.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The global economic recovery is proceeding, although signs of some moderation of growth are emerging, especially in advanced economies. The upswing in advanced economies is still muted amid balance sheet weaknesses in key sectors, and uncertainties persist over the strength of private demand as fiscal policy support is withdrawn. In contrast, many emerging economies are experiencing vigorous growth buoyed by domestic demand, supported by easy external financing conditions as well as their own remaining policy stimulus. In that context, the prospects of a sustained—though not permanent—period of low global interest rates will create challenges for emerging economies. Commodity prices are expected to remain robust, underpinned by continued strong demand from emerging Asia.