This Selected Issues paper on Serbia’s Article IV Consultation reviews the precrisis growth paradigm and its legacy vulnerabilities. The underlying growth model proved vulnerable to shocks, being associated with a high share of nontradable, low domestic savings, and a fragile external position. Convergence to EU income levels was relatively moderate. Economic growth fell following the onset of the global financial crisis and further slowed the pace of convergence. Serbia’s postcrisis income gap remains larger by comparison to more advanced regional economies. Structural bottlenecks continue to undermine overall competitiveness and constrain growth potential.
This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that it allows the systematic and rapid analysis of different policy options. The model embodies the key principle that, in an inflation-targeting framework, the role of monetary policy is to provide an anchor for inflation and inflation expectations. The development and calibration of this model is an ongoing process.
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper examines the scope for improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy of Serbia and Montenegro in containing the persistently large external imbalance. The paper discusses the causes of the current problems and presents preliminary results of the projected finances of the Fund for Employees (FE). It suggests options for reducing the cost of pension outlays, and provides preliminary estimates of the impact of the authorities’ recent reform package on the FE finances. The paper also provides a description of the main parameters of the Serbian pension system.
The fifth review of Serbia’s economic performance under the program supported by a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) is discussed. It helps in addressing the spillovers from the global financial crisis while establishing a moderate economic recovery. An accelerated pace of structural reforms will help to strengthen medium-term growth and employment prospects, supported by the resumption of adequate capital inflows, in particular through foreign direct investment. A strong commitment to the implementation of structural reforms will strengthen medium-term growth and employment prospects.