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International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
PAUL CASHIN and NORMAN LOAYZA

This paper examines the growth experience of nine South Pacific countries during the period 1971–93, using the analytical framework of the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model, panel data, and Chamberlain’s П-matrix estimator. The speed of convergence of South Pacific countries to their respective steady-state levels of per capita GDP, after controlling for the important regional effects of net international migration, is estimated at a relatively fast 4 percent per year. In addition, private and official transfers emanating from regional donor countries have kept the dispersion of real per capita national disposable income constant over the period, despite a significant widening in the regional dispersion of real per capita GDP. [JEL F22, O47, O56]