Partial financial indexation in Chile has produced a system in which most bank deposits are 30-day nonindexed deposits or 90-day indexed deposits. This paper uses data on the interest rates of these financial assets to test the joint hypothesis of rational expectations, efficient arbitrage, and a time-invariant liquidity premium. The data are also used to test whether the indexed/nonindexed interest spread is an accurate predictor of future changes in inflation, as the Fisher effect dictates. The significant implications of this empirical analysis for monetary policy are discussed.
Nominal interest rate pegging leads to instability in an IS-LM model with a vertical long-run Phillips curve and backward-looking inflation expectations. However, it does not lead to instability in several large multicountry econometric models, apparently primarily because these models have nonvertical long-run Phillips curves. Nominal interest rate pegging leads to price level and output indeterminacy in a model with staggered contracts and rational expectations. However, when a class of money supply rules with interest rate smoothing is introduced, and interest rate pegging is viewed as the limit of interest rate smoothing, the price level and output are determinate.
The development and use of forward-looking macro models in policymaking institutions has proceeded at a pace much slower than predicted in the early 1980s. An important reason is that researchers have not had access to robust and efficient solution techniques for solving nonlinear forward-looking models. This paper discusses the properties of a new algorithm that is used for solving MULTIMOD, the IMF’s multicountry model of the world economy. This algorithm is considerably faster and much less prone to simulation failures than to traditional algorithms and can also be used to solve individual country models of the same size.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Mr. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, Mr. Xavier Debrun, and Mr. Franc Klaassen
It is widely argued that Europe's unified monetary policy calls for international coordination at the fiscal level. We survey the issues involved in such coordination in the perspective of macroeconomic stabilization. A simple model identifies the circumstances under which coordination may be desirable. Coordination is beneficial when the cross-country correlation of the shocks is low. However, given the potentially adverse reaction by the ECB (as a result of free-riding or a conflict on the orientation of the policy mix), fiscal coordination is likely to prove counterproductive when demand or supply shocks are highly symmetric across countries and the governments are unable to acquire a strategic leadership position vis-à-vis the ECB.
This paper develops a model featuring both a macroeconomic and a financial friction that
speaks to the interaction between monetary and macro-prudential policies. There are two main
results. First, real interest rate rigidities in a monopolistic banking system have an asymmetric
impact on financial stability: they increase the probability of a financial crisis (relative to the
case of flexible interest rate) in response to contractionary shocks to the economy, while they
act as automatic macro-prudential stabilizers in response to expansionary shocks. Second, when
the interest rate is the only available policy instrument, a monetary authority subject to the same
constraints as private agents cannot always achieve a (constrained) efficient allocation and faces
a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability in response to contractionary shocks.
An implication of our analysis is that the weak link in the U.S. policy framework in the run up
to the Global Recession was not excessively lax monetary policy after 2002, but rather the
absence of an effective regulatory framework aimed at preserving financial stability.
This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables
into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions
among these cyclical and trend components. We derive a closed form solution to an
ordinary problem featuring homogeneous penalty term difference orders and static
restrictions, as well as to a generalized problem featuring heterogeneous penalty term
difference orders and dynamic restrictions. We use our Generalized Multivariate Linear
Filter to jointly estimate potential output, the natural rate of unemployment and the
natural rate of interest, conditional on selected equilibrium conditions from a calibrated
New Keynesian model.
The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.
Mr. Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish George, Joice John, Mr. Ondra Kamenik, Mr. Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Hou Wang, and Fan Zhang
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.
The welfare effects of mitigating the costs of inflation are examined. In a model where money reduces transactions costs, a fall in inflation costs is equivalent to financial innovation. This can be caused by paying interest on deposits, indexing money, or “dollarizing.” Results indicate that financial innovation raises welfare in low-inflation economies while reducing it in high-inflation economies because of the offsetting indirect effect of higher inflation to finance the budget.