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Olivier Lambert and Elizabeth Littlefield

Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.

International Monetary Fund

The review highlights that the government of Guinea-Bissau maintained macroeconomic stability under challenging circumstances. The government implemented satisfactory policies under the IMF supported program even in severe conditions. The authorities have met all performance criteria and all structural reforms for the second review. Sound macroeconomic policies, strengthened institutions, and debt relief have stabilized the economy and supported confidence building. It is critical that the government maintain the reform momentum and continue to build on the satisfactory performance under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

International Monetary Fund

According to IMF and IDA authorities, Guinea-Bissau had met the requirements for reaching the decision point under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The authorities appreciated the country’s tremendous efforts to reestablish economic, social, and institutional stability. In view of this, in addition to debt relief agreed at the decision point under the Enhanced Initiative for HIPC, they also agreed to topping up assistance at the completion point.

International Monetary Fund

Guinea-Bissau’s 2010 Article IV Consultation and request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility are discussed. Despite the difficult external environment and its political challenges, in 2009, Guinea-Bissau made progress in stabilizing its economy through the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance-supported program. Real GDP growth reached 3 percent, driven by a favorable cashew harvest and a pickup in construction activity. The main risks relate to political instability, vulnerability to external shocks, and the possibility of inadequate donor support.

International Monetary Fund

This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that in 2001, Guinea–Bissau suffered a substantial slowdown in economic activity, with real GDP growth estimated at 0.2 percent, as a result of a sizable loss of foreign program financing, a drop in the international market prices for cashew nuts of about 30 percent, and delays in implementing the demobilization and pre-2000 domestic arrears settlement programs and receiving the concomitant disbursements. Delays in implementing required structural reforms have contributed significantly to Guinea–Bissau’s current difficulties.

International Monetary Fund

Guinea-Bissau’s 2010 Article IV Consultation and request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility are discussed. Despite the difficult external environment and its political challenges, in 2009, Guinea-Bissau made progress in stabilizing its economy through the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance-supported program. Real GDP growth reached 3 percent, driven by a favorable cashew harvest and a pickup in construction activity. The main risks relate to political instability, vulnerability to external shocks, and the possibility of inadequate donor support.

International Monetary Fund

The review highlights that the government of Guinea-Bissau maintained macroeconomic stability under challenging circumstances. The government implemented satisfactory policies under the IMF supported program even in severe conditions. The authorities have met all performance criteria and all structural reforms for the second review. Sound macroeconomic policies, strengthened institutions, and debt relief have stabilized the economy and supported confidence building. It is critical that the government maintain the reform momentum and continue to build on the satisfactory performance under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

International Monetary Fund

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guinea-Bissau’s economic performance has weakened substantially in recent years. Real GDP declined by 7 percent in 2002 and was flat in 2003. Structural reforms stalled after the war; the private sector remained incapacitated because of the destruction of equipment and infrastructure caused by the conflict, and the loss of stocks owing to confiscating and looting. In 2003, the external current account deficit, excluding official transfers, halved relative to the previous year, to 6.7 percent of GDP, reflecting higher cashew nut exports and stagnating imports.

International Monetary Fund

Guinea-Bissau’s 2010 Article IV Consultation and request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility are discussed. Despite the difficult external environment and its political challenges, in 2009, Guinea-Bissau made progress in stabilizing its economy through the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance-supported program. Real GDP growth reached 3 percent, driven by a favorable cashew harvest and a pickup in construction activity. The main risks relate to political instability, vulnerability to external shocks, and the possibility of inadequate donor support.