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Gunnar S. Eskeland

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Mr. James Daniel, Mr. Masahiro Nozaki, Cristian Alonso, Vybhavi Balasundharam, Mr. Matthieu Bellon, Chuling Chen, David Corvino, and Mr. Joey Kilpatrick
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing policymakers worldwide, and the stakes are particularly high for Asia and the Pacific. This paper analyzes how fiscal policy can address challenges from climate change in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to answer how policymakers can best promote mitigation, adaptation, and the transition to a low-carbon economy, emphasizing the economic and social implications of reforms, potential policy trade-offs, and country circumstances. The recommendations are grounded in quantitative analysis using country-specific estimates, and granular household, industry, and firm-level data.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Commodity Boom: How Long Will It Last?' asks how economies will fare after the record-high prices of key raw materials posted in recent months, which build on dramatic increases from their lows of 2000. The lead article warns that the impact on headline inflation levels might persist throughout 2008, even without further commodity price hikes. It urges policymakers to ensure efficient functioning of market forces at the global level, and to move swiftly to protect the poorest. Another article addresses the effects of climate change on agriculture, warning that farm production will fall dramatically—especially in developing countries—if steps are not taken to curb carbon emissions. Other articles on this theme argue that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need not hobble economies, and that financial markets can help address climate change. 'People in Economics' profiles John Taylor; 'Picture This' says the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; 'Country Focus' spotlights South Africa; and 'Straight Talk' examines early warnings provided by credit derivatives. Also in this issue, articles examine China's increasing economic engagement with Africa, and the outsourcing of service jobs to other countries.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Ce numéro, intitulé « Boom des matières premières : pour combien de temps encore ? », pose la question suivante : comment l'économie va-t-elle évoluer après le niveau record des prix des matières premières observées au cours des derniers mois, qui accumulent des augmentations très éloignées des niveaux faibles des premières années de la décennie ? L'article principal met en garde contre la possibilité que les retombées pour les taux d'inflation pourraient persister tout au long de l'année 2008, même en l'absence de nouvelle hausse des prix des matières premières. Il exhorte les dirigeants à veiller au bon fonctionnement des forces du marché à l'échelle mondiale, et à prendre sans tarder des mesures pour protéger les populations les plus pauvres. Un autre article s'intéresse aux effets du changement climatique sur l'agriculture, et averti que la productivité agricole pourrait fortement chuter, en particulier dans les pays en développement, si rien n'est fait pour diminuer les émissions de carbone. D'autres articles sur ce thème allèguent que les politiques de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre ne nuisent pas forcément à l'économie, et que les marchés financiers peuvent contribuer à atténuer le changement climatique. Dans les rubriques habituelles, « Paroles d'économistes » est consacré à John Taylor,« Pleins feux » indique que le système énergétique mondial suit une trajectoire de moins en moins durable, « Gros plan » est consacré à l'Afrique du Sud, et« Entre nous » s'intéresse aux signaux d'alarme indiqués par les dérivés de crédit. D'autres articles de ce numéro s'intéressent aux liens économiques de plus en plus étroits entre la Chine et l'Afrique, ainsi qu'à la délocalisation des emplois de services à l'étranger.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En “Boom de los productos básicos: ¿Cuánto durará?” se analiza cómo reaccionarán las economías ante la reciente escalada sin precedentes de los precios de las materias primas, los cuales contrastan marcadamente con los mínimos registrados en 2000. En el artículo de fondo se advierte que las repercusiones del alza del nivel general de inflación podrían persistir a lo largo de 2008, aun si no se produjeran nuevos aumentos de precios de las materias primas. Las autoridades deben garantizar el funcionamiento eficiente de las fuerzas del mercado a escala mundial y actuar con celeridad para proteger a los más pobres. En otro artículo se analiza el impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura y se advierte que, si no se reducen las emisiones de carbono, la producción agrícola disminuirá notablemente, sobre todo en los países en desarrollo. En otros artículos se plantea que las políticas para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero no tienen por qué ser perjudiciales para las economías y que los mercados financieros pueden ser parte de la solución del problema del cambio climático. En “Gente del mundo de la economía” se entrevista a John Taylor; en “Bajo la lupa” se observa cómo el sistema mundial de energía avanza hacia una situación cada vez más insostenible; en “Panorama nacional” se pasa revista a Sudáfrica; y en “Hablando claro” se examinan las señales de alerta que emiten los instrumentos financieros derivados sobre crédito. En otros artículos se analiza la creciente presencia económica de China en África y la relocalización en el extranjero de los empleos del sector de servicios.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Commodity Boom: How Long Will It Last?" asks how economies will fare after the record-high prices of key raw materials posted in recent months, which build on dramatic increases from their lows of 2000. The lead article warns that the impact on headline inflation levels might persist throughout 2008, even without further commodity price hikes. It urges policymakers to ensure efficient functioning of market forces at the global level, and to move swiftly to protect the poorest. Another article addresses the effects of climate change on agriculture, warning that farm production will fall dramatically-especially in developing countries-if steps are not taken to curb carbon emissions. Other articles on this theme argue that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need not hobble economies, and that financial markets can help address climate change. "People in Economics" profiles John Taylor; "Picture This" says the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; "Country Focus" spotlights South Africa; and "Straight Talk" examines early warnings provided by credit derivatives. Also in this issue, articles examine China's increasing economic engagement with Africa, and the outsourcing of service jobs to other countries.
Ian W.H. Parry and Victor Mylonas
The pan-Canadian approach to carbon pricing, announced in October 2016, ensures that carbon pricing applies throughout Canada in 2018, with increasing stringency over time to reduce emissions. Canadian provinces and territories have the flexibility to either implement an explicit price-based system—with a minimum price of CAN $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2018, increasing to CAN $50 per tonne by 2022—or an equivalently scaled emissions trading system. This paper discusses the rationale for, and design of, the price floor requirement; its (provincial-level) environmental, fiscal, and economic welfare impacts; monitoring issues; and (national-level) incidence. The general conclusion is that the welfare costs and implementation issues are manageable, and pricing provides significant new revenues. A challenge is that the floor price by itself appears well short of what will be needed by 2030 for Canada’s Paris Agreement pledge.
Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Chandara Veung, and Mr. Dirk Heine
This paper calculates, for the top twenty emitting countries, how much pricing of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is in their own national interests due to domestic co-benefits (leaving aside the global climate benefits). On average, nationally efficient prices are substantial, $57.5 per ton of CO2 (for year 2010), reflecting primarily health co-benefits from reduced air pollution at coal plants and, in some cases, reductions in automobile externalities (net of fuel taxes/subsidies). Pricing co-benefits reduces CO2 emissions from the top twenty emitters by 13.5 percent (a 10.8 percent reduction in global emissions). However, co-benefits vary dramatically across countries (e.g., with population exposure to pollution) and differentiated pricing of CO2 emissions therefore yields higher net benefits (by 23 percent) than uniform pricing. Importantly, the efficiency case for pricing carbon’s co-benefits hinges critically on (i) weak prospects for internalizing other externalities through other pricing instruments and (ii) productive use of carbon pricing revenues.
Pierpaolo Grippa and Samuel Mann
This paper explores three possible transmission channels for transition risk shocks to the financial system in Norway. First, we estimate the direct firm-level impact of a substantial increase in domestic carbon prices under severe assumptions. Second, we map the impact of a drastic increase in global carbon prices on the domestic economy via the Norwegian oil sector. Third, we model the impact of a forced reduction in Norwegian oil firms’ output on shareholder portfolios. Results show that such a sharp increase in carbon prices would have a significant but manageable impact on banks. Finally, the paper discusses ways to advance the still evolving field of transition risk stress testing.