This Joint Staff Advisory Note discusses the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Second Progress Report for the Republic of Tajikistan. The progress report presents a comprehensive assessment of the nature and dynamics of poverty from various sources and perspectives, and recognizes the challenges ahead for continued progress in reducing the number of people living in poverty. The report fully acknowledges that the poor quality, reliability, and timeliness of statistics for monitoring progress in poverty reduction are owed to the lack of capacity to collect and analyze data and to the weak coordination between state agencies.
This paper presents key findings of the Joint Staff Assessment of Tajikistan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Progress Report. Macroeconomic management has improved, and some structural reforms have been implemented, but serious institutional weaknesses hinder effective policy implementation. Privatization of a number of hitherto state-owned enterprises and increasing remittances from migrant workers have facilitated the development of private sector activities in the service sector, and thus contributed to a gradual diversification of the sources of growth. Good progress has also been achieved in maintaining the fiscal discipline.
This Second Progress Report on Tajikistan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) discusses key developments in the status and dynamics of poverty-related indicators in the country during 2004. Although economic growth has generated significant reductions in poverty rates in the past years, the report concludes that people’s livelihoods have not changed drastically. Income poverty remains high. People’s access to energy, water, communications, education, and health services remains highly problematic. This report also reviews the government’s macroeconomic management performance and discusses institutional shortfalls affecting the poverty reduction effort.
This paper reviews Tajikistan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Progress Report. There are positive signs in the initial implementation stages of the Poverty Reduction Strategy process. The revenue performance has improved, and expenditures are managed with tight fiscal discipline. The expenditures in the social sectors were almost 43 percent of the budget in 2003. Cash compensations, increased public sector salaries and increased pensions have targeted social sector spending better. The cash compensations totaled 12 million Sm. in the 2003 budget.
Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji, Mr. Boileau Loko, Raj Nallari, and Mr. Montfort Mlachila
This paper explores the relationship between external debt and poverty. A number of observers have argued that high external indebtedness is a major cause of poverty. Using the first-differenced general method of moments (GMM) estimator, the paper models the impact of external debt on poverty, measured by life expectancy, infant mortality, and gross primary enrollment rates, while duly taking into account the impact of external debt on income. The paper thus endeavors to bring together the literature that links external debt with income growth and poverty. The main conclusion is that once the effect of income on poverty has been taken into account, external indebtedness indicators have a limited but important impact on poverty.
The 2006 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Tajikistan explains political and economic developments. Although Tajikistan’s external debt profile has improved significantly, total public and publicly guaranteed debt is projected to increase significantly, mainly because of large project-related disbursements from China. Any financial resources directed to the private sector, particularly if subsidized, should be channeled through the budget in a transparent manner. Executive Directors welcomed the authorities’ intention to put in place a debt management strategy that will prevent public debt from exceeding 60 percent of GDP.
Tajikistan’s growth potential is constrained by government interference in markets, and poor energy and transport infrastructure. The report focuses on Tajikistan’s combined 2009 Article IV Consultation, final review under the Staff-Monitored Program, and request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. Macroeconomic policies may need to be tightened further if external developments turn out worse than currently projected. Alternatively, additional donor support could ease the domestic adjustment burden.
The Russian economy has improved after the recession, but recovery is fragile. Executive Directors appreciated the pre-crisis policy of taxing and saving oil revenues in a stabilization fund, which had created significant space for fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and extraordinary liquidity support to the banking system while helping to prevent an abrupt ruble depreciation. Directors agreed that the main challenges will be to implement medium-term fiscal consolidation, mitigate pressures for real appreciation and inflation, restore the health of the banking system, and improve the investment climate through ambitious structural reforms.
This paper on the First Assessment Under the 2008 Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for the Republic of Tajikistan discusses the ongoing global financial crisis. The main purpose of the SMP is to allow the authorities to reestablish their credibility after a serious episode of misreporting to the IMF. Revenue collection was stronger than projected, mostly reflecting high nominal growth and imports. Monetary and exchange rate policies will have to focus on maintaining external stability. Moreover, a possible sharp depreciation of main trading partners’ currencies may require further exchange rate adjustment.