Global merchandise trade expanded rapidly over the last 6½ decades and its relationship
with global income has seen ebbs and flows. This paper examines the shifts in this
relationship using time series data over 1950-2014 and situates it in the current and
longer term context. The conjunctural context comes from, among other things, the “great
trade collapse” (GTC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, and developments
since then. The longer term context comes from the relative role of “globalization” and
“technology” shocks in accounting for the short and long run variance of global exports
and income. The paper estimates trade and income elasticities using ADL models taking
account of structural breaks, and impulse response functions from structural VARs. The
estimated SVAR model provides a lens to ask whether global trade and income are in a
“new normal’ or only “back to (an old) normal” after the GTC and GFC.
The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its future prospects given the recent slowdown. It analysis the potential dangers and reasons for India’s growth slowdown and proposes policy reforms for sustaining fast growth.
Mr. Andrew Baer, Mr. Kwangwon Lee, James Tebrake, and Mr. Gabriel Quiros-Romero
Digitalization and the innovative use of digital technologies is changing the way we work, learn, communicate, buy and sell products. One emerging digital technology of growing importance is cloud computing. More and more businesses, governments and households are purchasing hardware and software services from a small number of large cloud computing providers. This change is having an impact on how macroeconomic data are compiled and how they are interpreted by users. Specifically, this is changing the information and communication technology (ICT) investment pattern from one where ICT investment was diversified across many industries to a more concentrated investment pattern. Additionally, this is having an impact on cross-border flows of commercial services since the cloud service provider does not need to be located in the same economic territory as the purchaser of cloud services. This paper will outline some of the methodological and compilation challenges facing statisticians and analysts, provide some tools that can be used to overcome these challenges and highlight some of the implications these changes are having on the way users of national accounts data look at investment and trade in commercial services.