The Two Faces of Financial Globalization looks at the phenomenon of rising cross-border financial flows-credited with boosting growth in developing countries but also blamed for the emerging market crises of the late 1980s and 1990s. The lead article puts together a framework for analyzing studies about the costs and benefits of financial globalization. Other articles look at the worldwide allocation of capital, the role of finance in macroeconomic management, and changes in the investor base. "Picture This" illustrates the growth and direction of capital flows. One guest contributor describes India's capital account liberalization, and another looks at how participants in international finance can cope with a fluid financial landscape. "People in Economics" profiles Guillermo Calvo; "Back to Basics" explains the difference between the purchasing power parity exchange rate and market exchange rates as measures of global economic growth; and "Country Focus" spotlights Australia.
Paraguay’s economy recently experienced particularly large output swings. Economic policies will play a critical role in raising investment by making sure that macroeconomic stability is maintained. The spillovers from the agricultural sector to the rest of the economy are limited. The high level of bank excess reserves in Paraguay reflects a mixture of precautionary and involuntary factors. Large bank excess reserves weaken the monetary transmission channel, and cause inefficiency costs. Bank reforms should be undertaken to preserve financial and macroeconomic stability.
En los últimos años, el FMI ha publicado cada vez más informes y trabajos que abarcan los fenómenos y tendencias en materia económica y financiera en los países miembros. Un equipo de integrantes del personal técnico del FMI elabora cada informe tras celebrar consultas con los funcionarios de los gobiernos; el país miembro puede optar por publicar el informe.
This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.
Mr. Bennett W Sutton, Mrs. Genevieve M Lindow, Maria Isabel Serra, Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, and Maria Fernanda Pazmino
This paper presents empirical evidence on convergence of per capita output for regions within six large middle-income Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. It explores the role played by several exogenous sectoral shocks and differences in steady states within each country. It finds that poor and rich regions within each country converged at very low rates over the past three decades. It also finds evidence of regional "convergence clubs" within Brazil and Peru- the estimated speeds of convergence for these countries more than double after controlling for different subnational levels of steady state. For the latter countries and Chile, convergence is also higher after controlling for sector-specific shocks. Finally, results show that national disparities in per capita output increased temporarily after each country pursued trade liberalization.
The Impact of Development Articles in Finance and Development generally deal with the world’s economic problems as they appear to the generals in the operations rooms, or to senior officers in the field. In this series of articles (the first of which was David Love’s “Pioneering in Japan” in Finance and Development, Vol. III, No. 4, December 1966) an attempt is made to give some glimpses of development as it affects the lives of the private soldiers of development.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the developments in the labor market of Peru during the 1990s. The study assesses the relationship between the orientation of economic policy and export performance, in particular, export diversification over the last four decades. The paper describes the two-tier pension system and evaluates the long-term fiscal burden of this system. The study also reviews the design and implementation of monetary policy in Peru over the last decade.
In Japan, the problem of matching domestic agricultural development and capacity with the needs of a fast-growing industrial economy is a continuing one. A scheme launched 11 years ago to streamline the process of land settlement and improvement today provides an object lesson in achievement through adaptability.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic fundamentals, strong policy frameworks, and visible gains in poverty reduction. Like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. External shocks were compounded by domestic supply disruptions and a drop in subnational public investment, and growth decelerated sharply. Headline inflation was slightly above the upper band of the central bank’s (BCRP) target range due to supply shocks, but expectations remained well anchored. The external current account deficit declined slightly despite weaker external conditions. Outlook and risks: Growth is expected to recover in 2015 and over the medium term, contingent on production at new mines approaching capacity, priority infrastructure projects advancing, and shocks to terms of trade fading. However, downside risks dominate. Externally, these include a surge in global financial volatility, further dollar appreciation, or lower commodity prices and external demand. Domestic downside risks include weaker investment, uncertainties surrounding 2016 Presidential elections, and persistent social conflicts. A faster unwinding of supply shocks or a more complete pass- through of lower food and fuel global prices constitute upside risks. Near-term policy mix: The policy mix is broadly adequate to support the recovery and maintain macroeconomic stability. The immediate priority is expediting the execution of public investment in line with government plans, while avoiding increases in non-priority current spending. Monetary policy should remain responsive to inflation expectations and external developments. Exchange rate flexibility should be the main line of defense against any additional external pressures. The timely use of macro-prudential tools and ongoing de-dollarization efforts should further solidify financial stability. Medium-term prospects: With the end of the commodity boom, a push to deepen structural reforms will be necessary to sustain potential growth and diversify the economy. Revenue losses would need to be offset to finance structural reforms, investment, and inclusion along a gradual fiscal consolidation path. Streamlining legal requirements and red tape is rightly a government reform priority and the ambitious education reform and inclusion polices should stay their course within the framework of fiscal discipline. Persevering with labor market reform remains important.