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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

This paper discusses Guinea-Bissau's First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, Request for Rephasing of Disbursements, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. All performance criteria for the first and second reviews were met. The IMF staff discussions with the authorities focused on measures to fill the 2016 financing gap that resulted from the loss of budget support and steps to reignite structural reforms. The authorities undertook remedial measures, including declaring the bank bailout operation null and void and measures to address weaknesses in public financial management. The IMF staff supports completion of the first and second reviews under the ECF arrangement and the authorities' requests for modification of performance criteria and rephasing of disbursements.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

This paper discusses Guinea-Bissau�s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). In 2012 and 2013, Guinea-Bissau suffered a severe balance of payments shock as the international price of raw cashew nuts�the main export product�fell by about 20 percent per year. The authorities have requested assistance under the RCF to help address the urgent balance of payments and fiscal financing needs for 2014. The IMF staff supports the authorities� request for assistance under the RCF in view of their currently limited capacity to implement policies of an upper credit tranche-quality economic program, the large and urgent balance of payments need, and the catalytic effect of IMF support for other external financing.

International Monetary Fund

The review highlights that the government of Guinea-Bissau maintained macroeconomic stability under challenging circumstances. The government implemented satisfactory policies under the IMF supported program even in severe conditions. The authorities have met all performance criteria and all structural reforms for the second review. Sound macroeconomic policies, strengthened institutions, and debt relief have stabilized the economy and supported confidence building. It is critical that the government maintain the reform momentum and continue to build on the satisfactory performance under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

International Monetary Fund

Guinea-Bissau’s 2010 Article IV Consultation and request for a Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility are discussed. Despite the difficult external environment and its political challenges, in 2009, Guinea-Bissau made progress in stabilizing its economy through the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance-supported program. Real GDP growth reached 3 percent, driven by a favorable cashew harvest and a pickup in construction activity. The main risks relate to political instability, vulnerability to external shocks, and the possibility of inadequate donor support.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

The staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on Guinea-Bissau highlights the economic development and policies. Guinea-Bissau’s medium-term challenges are to diversify its economy, reduce widespread poverty, and generate employment opportunities. Recurrent internal conflicts have negatively affected economic growth, poverty reduction, and social advancement in Guinea-Bissau. The economic performance will depend critically on establishing a visibly inclusive political process while moving toward demobilization, and professionalization of the military forces. In the baseline, uncertainties about implementation of those conditions suggest scope for only a slow and weak recovery, leaving real per capita incomes below 2011 levels until at least 2016.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: A series of coups d’état since independence have resulted in chronic political instability and deterred economic and social progress. Guinea-Bissau has re-initiated progress since the assumption of office of the current inclusive government in mid-2014. The economy is now recovering after a decline in 2012 and marginal growth in 2013. Inflation remains low, and socio-political stability seems achievable. The coup d’état of April 2012 stalled implementation of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF)- supported program approved by the Board in May 2010, and the arrangement lapsed subsequently. The Fund’s support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of 2014 and the authorities’ commitment to reforms have re-ignited donor confidence. Article IV Discussions. Policy discussions focused on measures to overcome fragility; fiscal consolidation and public financial management reforms; restoring financial stability; borrowing policies and long-term debt sustainability; private sector development and structural reforms to enhance inclusive growth prospects. The Proposed Program. The authorities’ development program, anchored on the Strategic Plan for 2014–18, aims to consolidate the fiscal position through better expenditure management and enhanced revenue mobilization, deepen institutional reform, mitigate vulnerabilities, and develop the private sector to support growth and employment. The program focuses on improving the policy framework by addressing governance and security issues, strengthening budgetary transparency as well as public investment and debt management, and improving compilation of statistics. Structural benchmarks focus on these issues while QPCs include a floor on revenues collection and a ceiling on net credit to government (the anchor of the program). Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. To support their medium-term economic reform program, the authorities request a three-year arrangement under the ECF in an amount equivalent to SDR 17.04 million (120 percent of quota). Risks to the program include the still fragile political situation, which could delay implementation of reforms, adverse terms of trade developments, and weakening donor confidence, and the heightened risk of incursion of the Ebola virus from neighboring countries.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

2017 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau

International Monetary Fund
The paper highlights that Guinea-Bissau managed to maintain macroeconomic stability amid challenging political circumstances. The Executive Board agreed that the performance under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF)-supported program has been satisfactory in attaining substantial progress with structural reforms. They agreed that it has qualified for debt relief, including for topping-up assistance; the Board also stressed the need to maintain commitment to the successful implementation of economic reforms.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on Guinea-Bissau highlights the economic development and policies. Guinea-Bissau’s medium-term challenges are to diversify its economy, reduce widespread poverty, and generate employment opportunities. Recurrent internal conflicts have negatively affected economic growth, poverty reduction, and social advancement in Guinea-Bissau. The economic performance will depend critically on establishing a visibly inclusive political process while moving toward demobilization, and professionalization of the military forces. In the baseline, uncertainties about implementation of those conditions suggest scope for only a slow and weak recovery, leaving real per capita incomes below 2011 levels until at least 2016.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.