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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

IMF Country Report No. 21/152

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for Nigeria

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This chapter presents Ecuador’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and Cancellation of Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Ecuador is facing urgent and immediate balance of payment (BOP) needs driven by the sharp propagation of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak—Ecuador is one of the hardest hit countries in Latin America—a plummeting of oil prices, and a dramatic collapse of global demand. In the near term, the authorities have taken significant measures to contain the spread of the virus and mitigate the socio-economic impact. Containment measures include the closing of schools and universities, public spaces and noncritical commercial activities, halting public transport, and imposing a nationwide curfew. Additional support from other external partners will be required and critical to close the remaining financing gap and ease budget constraints. The RFI will help Ecuador finance the much-needed health and social assistance spending and catalyze financing from other multilateral financial institutions.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Near-term macroeconomic prospects continue to improve in the context of higher oil prices and a gradual global recovery from the pandemic shock, but the medium-term outlook remains challenging and highly uncertain. Oil production remains muted, debt and inflation remain elevated, and non-oil activity is expected to recover only gradually. However, continued strong fiscal performance (aided by higher oil revenues), exchange rate stabilization, and a return to positive non-oil growth would contribute to a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year, easing debt vulnerabilities.
Sophia Chen, Ms. Deniz O Igan, Mr. Nicola Pierri, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people’s mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Measures to contain the spread of the virus have led to sharp declines in economic activity across the globe, particularly in 2020Q2. The hardest hit sectors have been those requiring intensive human contact, such as tourism, transportation, services, and construction, while, in general, IT-intensive activities have fared better. The economic contraction is most significant in advanced economies. The GCC countries face a double impact from the coronavirus and lower oil prices. GCC authorities have implemented a range of appropriate measures to mitigate the economic damage, including fiscal packages, relaxation of monetary and macroprudential rules, and the injection of liquidity into the banking system, and there are recent signs of improvement. Low oil prices have caused a sharp deterioration of external and fiscal balances, and fiscal strains are evident in countries with higher debt levels.