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International Monetary Fund

Tonga’s economy has become increasingly vulnerable. Fiscal discipline has weakened, undermining macroeconomic stability and external viability. Medium-term prospects have deteriorated. Moreover, there are other serious downside risks to the fiscal outlook. Further monetary tightening in response to the wage settlement and the full flexibility of the exchange rate system are required. A larger and more dynamic private sector offering alternative employment opportunities would facilitate the downsizing of the public sector. There is a need to improve the reliability, coverage, and timeliness of statistics.

International Monetary Fund

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s real GDP growth is estimated to turn negative in FY06/07, declining by 3½ percent. The economy will continue to be subject to uncertainty and shocks. While economic growth should return to positive, albeit low, levels in the medium term, there are lingering risks on the policy front that could derail efforts to restore stability, in particular those that might arise from pressures to increase public sector hiring. A further drop in remittances and terms of trade shocks could present significant pressures on official reserves.

International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s real GDP growth is estimated to turn negative in FY06/07, declining by 3½ percent. The economy will continue to be subject to uncertainty and shocks. While economic growth should return to positive, albeit low, levels in the medium term, there are lingering risks on the policy front that could derail efforts to restore stability, in particular those that might arise from pressures to increase public sector hiring. A further drop in remittances and terms of trade shocks could present significant pressures on official reserves.
International Monetary Fund
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in Tonga rebounded modestly in 2001/02, as real GDP growth accelerated from about ½ percent in 2000/01 (fiscal year July–June) to 1½ percent in 2001/02. Conditions in agriculture improved owing to record-high prices for squash and vanilla. Construction rebounded sharply with the assistance provided by the international community to rebuild structures destroyed by Cyclone Waka. Tourism and the service sector have been sluggish during most of the past two years.
International Monetary Fund
Tonga’s economy has become increasingly vulnerable. Fiscal discipline has weakened, undermining macroeconomic stability and external viability. Medium-term prospects have deteriorated. Moreover, there are other serious downside risks to the fiscal outlook. Further monetary tightening in response to the wage settlement and the full flexibility of the exchange rate system are required. A larger and more dynamic private sector offering alternative employment opportunities would facilitate the downsizing of the public sector. There is a need to improve the reliability, coverage, and timeliness of statistics.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper assesses the fiscal risk impact of various events in Tonga and describes the challenges implied for fiscal management. The paper discusses that the Tongan government has made various efforts to limit the budgetary implications of the recent economic and political shocks, including pursuing revenue administration efforts, cutting other expenditures, and seeking donor assistance. The paper examines rising household indebtedness in Tonga. Within the framework of the life-cycle hypothesis, the paper finds that Tonga’s relatively young demographic distribution tends to be associated with higher level of aggregate household debt.
Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin
This paper analyzes the determinants of remittances to Tonga. The results indicate that macroeconomic conditions in remitting countries and exchange rate fluctuations influence remittances. In particular, remittances growth falls when the Tongan currency appreciates, but increases with higher real GDP growth and lower unemployment in remitting countries. The analysis also finds that the influence of these determinants varies with the recipients of remittances, with remittances to non-profit organizations being more sensitive to an appreciation of the Tongan currency and the interest rate differential between Tonga and remitting countries than remittances to households. However, the analysis does not find evidence of "Dutch Disease" in Tonga, as the real exchange rate does not appear to be affected by remittances.
International Monetary Fund

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of the November 2006 riots and is now on a path to recovery. The key factor underpinning this resilience has been private investment. Donor-supported government reconstruction loans are expected to add further momentum to the recovery. However, the global upswing in fuel and food prices has intensified pressure on inflation and external reserves. Tonga’s external position is expected to weaken, reflecting mainly the impact of rising food and fuel prices.

International Monetary Fund

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s real GDP growth is estimated to turn negative in FY06/07, declining by 3½ percent. The economy will continue to be subject to uncertainty and shocks. While economic growth should return to positive, albeit low, levels in the medium term, there are lingering risks on the policy front that could derail efforts to restore stability, in particular those that might arise from pressures to increase public sector hiring. A further drop in remittances and terms of trade shocks could present significant pressures on official reserves.

International Monetary Fund

Tonga’s economy has become increasingly vulnerable. Fiscal discipline has weakened, undermining macroeconomic stability and external viability. Medium-term prospects have deteriorated. Moreover, there are other serious downside risks to the fiscal outlook. Further monetary tightening in response to the wage settlement and the full flexibility of the exchange rate system are required. A larger and more dynamic private sector offering alternative employment opportunities would facilitate the downsizing of the public sector. There is a need to improve the reliability, coverage, and timeliness of statistics.