Sub-Saharan Africa is contending with an unprecedented health and economic crisis—one that, in just a few months, has jeopardized years of hard-won development gains and upended the lives and livelihoods of millions.
This paper discusses key findings of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) Monitoring and Implementation Report 2005 for Chad. The strategy is based on the attainment of five core objectives: good governance, robust and sustained growth, the development of human capital, improved living conditions for the most vulnerable segments of the population, and environmental protection. This report aims to provide a more comprehensive account of the measures taken and results achieved since the beginning of NPRS implementation.
This paper reviews economic developments in Chad during 1990–95. After a noticeable deterioration during 1991–93, Chad’s economy rebounded in 1994 following the devaluation, and continued to expand in 1995. During 1991–93, economic and financial developments were characterized by persistent domestic and external imbalances, which negatively affected economic growth and increased poverty. Real GDP and import volumes stagnated, export volumes dropped by 12 percent, and the terms of trade declined by 11 percent; investment remained low, barely averaging 10 percent of GDP, and real consumption per capita declined by 15 percent.
This paper analyzes competitiveness in Chad since the advent of the oil era in the 2000s. Oil has since positioned itself as the key sector of a traditional economy that previously depended on agriculture and some light manufacturing. Dominated by developments in the oil sector, Chad’s balance of payments is vulnerable to the indirect effects of the sector’s volatility. The country’s ample reserves are insulated from oil sector shocks to the extent that oil-sector-related flows for trade in goods and service, factor income, and capital automatically offset each other.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic outcomes in Chad continue to underperform, owing to the major impact of two exogenous shocks: lower oil prices and higher regional insecurity. Oil revenues have collapsed to a fraction of their previous level and are expected to recover only partially and gradually. Economic activity slowed sharply in 2015, with GDP growth estimated to have decelerated to 1.8 percent from 6.9 percent in 2014. The short- and medium-term outlooks remain challenging. Including a contraction of 1.1 percent in 2016, GDP growth is projected to average about 2 percent a year during 2016–18, compared with almost 5 percent during 2013–15.
Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that smuggling has implications for inflation and currency depreciation. A vicious circle emerges when financial policies are expansionary and policy makers attempt to hold the domestic sale price of oil constant. Macroeconomic indicators of Nigeria over the period 1986-1993 appear to support the predictions of the model. Policy implications of the analysis are also noted.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In the following interview, Tomás J.T. Baliño and Angel Ubide, authors of IMF Working Paper No. 99/28, The Korean Financial Crisis of 1997—A Strategy of Financial Sector Reform, discuss Korea’s response to the crisis and the lessons it offers for other countries.
Over the past two decades, Nigeria has not reaped fully the benefits of its national wealth despite its efforts at structural adjustment. This paper concludes that the facts do not justify the negative image that structural adjustment has had in Nigeria. Vigorous market reforms and tight financial policies had resulted in economic growth and employment expansion, but they were abandoned too soon to have sustained benefits.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
"This paper is the fourth in a series that examines macroeconomic developments and prospects in Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). LIDCs are Fund member countries where gross national income (GNI) per capita lies below a threshold level and where external financial linkages and socioeconomic indicators have not lifted them into emerging market status. There are 59 countries in the LIDC grouping, accounting for about one-fifth of the world’s population and 4 percent of global output.
The paper examines macroeconomic trends across LIDCs in recent years, contrasting key features of the current situation with the period prior to the 2014 decline in commodity prices. Particular attention is given to the evolution of fiscal positions and public debt levels, including detailed analysis of the drivers of debt accumulation and the current severity of debt vulnerabilities. The analysis is grounded in, and draws on, the analysis and databases used to compile the World Economic Outlook: this report drills down into the WEO database to look in detail at the experience of LIDCs."