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International Monetary Fund

This paper reviews economic developments in Iceland during 1990–96. It analyzes the origins of the current economic expansion associated with a swing in the current account and in emerging inflation pressure. Three driving forces are emphasized: the positive supply shock affecting the fisheries; the expansion of the power intensive industry; and brisk increases in real wages over the past two years (1995–96). The paper highlights that the main sources of upside risks comprise the likely construction of a new aluminum smelter.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper estimates the gap between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its equilibrium (medium-term) value. The paper explores certain features of fiscal policy in Iceland, and examines various aspects of fiscal frameworks in other European countries that are possibly worthy of emulation. It provides a detailed summary of the key issues affecting fiscal policy in Iceland. It argues that political economy factors lead to procyclical fiscal trends, and this is exacerbated by macroeconomic volatility. The paper also provides an overview of the structure of the banking sector of Iceland.

International Monetary Fund

Iceland’s gross external debt rose above 600 percent of GDP, while households and corporations accumulated heavy debt burdens with large exposures to foreign exchange and inflation risk. The global banking crisis exposed Iceland’s vulnerabilities, triggering a balance-of-payments crisis, a collapse of the exchange rate and output, and the failure of financial and many nonfinancial firms. The importance of accelerating the restructuring of banks’ operations and balance sheets and also policy frameworks has been stressed. The downward trend in inflation is welcomed.

International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Iceland during 1990–95. It describes developments in the real economy, and examines monetary and exchange rate developments and policies and the transmission of monetary policy. The paper provides a detailed look at budgetary outcomes and the stance of fiscal policy for 1995. Determinants of past and present growth in Iceland are examined. Indicators of fiscal sustainability are used to argue for better public finances in Iceland. The paper also examines the Icelandic tax structure.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies. Uzbekistan entered the COVID-19 crisis with relatively strong macro-economic fundamentals.
International Monetary Fund
This technical assistance report on Iceland focuses on a new organic budget law (OBL). In designing a new OBL, it is important to preserve good features of Iceland’s current legal framework for budgeting. At the same time, any new OBL should address the key weaknesses in the Financial Reporting Act 1997 that prevent it from providing a credible, integrated framework for budgeting. The institutional coverage of the OBL should be expanded to encompass the whole public sector and incorporate an integrated timetable for the entire budget process.
International Monetary Fund
Iceland’s gross external debt rose above 600 percent of GDP, while households and corporations accumulated heavy debt burdens with large exposures to foreign exchange and inflation risk. The global banking crisis exposed Iceland’s vulnerabilities, triggering a balance-of-payments crisis, a collapse of the exchange rate and output, and the failure of financial and many nonfinancial firms. The importance of accelerating the restructuring of banks’ operations and balance sheets and also policy frameworks has been stressed. The downward trend in inflation is welcomed.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, during 2008, the financial crisis lead Iceland’s public debt to soar from under 30 percent of GDP to more than 100 percent of GDP, and while underlying external debt came down sharply, it remains elevated at close to 300 percent of GDP. First, external sustainability is overviewed, and second, growth of Iceland’s economy has been challenged, and finally, fiscal adjustments and its macroeconomic impacts are overviewed. Traditional external debt sustainability analysis (DSA) suggests that Iceland’s external debt is sustainable but is vulnerable to depreciation shock.
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper analyzes the issue of purchasing power parity using real effective exchange rate (REER) data for 20 industrial countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. The serial correlation-robust median-unbiased estimator yields a cross-country average of half-lives of deviations from parity of about eight years, with the REER of several countries displaying permanent deviations from parity. The paper analyzes integration of Africa into world trade. The high-yield spread as a predictor of real economic activity is also examined.
Mr. Anthony M Annett
Expenditure in Iceland, especially related to the government wage bill, has tended to move in a procyclical manner, related to the fragmentation of political decision making. Iceland's elevated macroeconomic volatility reinforces these tendencies, as large booms unleash greater fiscal pressures as well as procyclical revenue elasticities that magnify these underlying strains. To improve its fiscal framework, Iceland could look to the experience of countries like Belgium and the Netherlands. In particular, it could adopt binding nominal expenditure rules, independent forecasts, and use representative committees to lay out medium-term targets across different levels of government.