For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper on Bosnia and Herzegovina provides background information for the 1999 Article IV Consultation with Bosnia and Herzegovina. The economy has been dominated by a small number of large state-owned enterprises. A central policy was settled during the preparation of the privatization framework under which the competence to privatize was assigned to the entities. Major tax policy reforms will be needed over the medium term to address the deficiencies of the present tax system, and to lay the foundation for long-term economic growth, driven mainly by private sector development.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Drawing on evidence from a sample of emerging market economies over the period 1990-2004, this evaluation report reviews the IMF’s approach to capital account liberalization and related issues. The evaluation seeks to contribute to transparency by documenting what in practice has been the IMF's approach to these issues and to identify areas where the IMF’s instruments and operating methods might be improved, in order to deal with these issues more effectively.
The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.
This paper presents four studies on selected issues of the Chilean economy. The first two studies address matters relevant to the implementation of monetary policy, motivated in part by Chile's recent adoption of an enhanced framework for inflation targeting. The degree of external vulnerability of the Chilean economy, drawing heavily on international evidence, is also discussed. Finally, this paper also includes a statistical appendix, and three annexes summarizing certain aspects of Chile's economic policy regime. Forecasting inflation is an essential element of any inflation targeting regime.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines several real sector issues, including estimates of potential output, the effect of Intel’s withdrawal on gross domestic product (GDP), labor market and inequality and electricity prices in Costa Rica. The production function approach shows that the main drivers of fluctuations in GDP growth are total factor productivity (TFP) and labor supply. These results on TFP, however, should be interpreted with caution. The TFP measure is a residual—the difference between output growth and the growth in the quantity (and quality) of inputs. Estimates suggest that potential GDP growth is about 4.3 percent, the output gap is broadly closed, and Intel’s withdrawal will lower real GDP growth in about 1/2 percentage point. Significant wage premia are identified across public versus private sectors and some evidence of intergenerational inequality is also presented. Electricity tariffs are found to be regionally competitive albeit with inefficiencies in their determination.
The Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix assesses the prospects of future capital flows to Poland. The paper briefly reviews the theory behind capital flows, and presents the stylized facts of recent capital flows to Poland. It reviews the experience of other large-scale privatizers, and looks at the empirical determinants of capital flows. The paper also reviews the development of foreign currency loans in Poland, drawing comparisons with other emerging market economies, and discusses challenges posed by these loans.
This Selected Issues paper is a wide-ranging survey of the conditions for, and obstacles to, the growth in Mexico. It frames the issue of Mexico’s growth record, and presents the paper’s prior assumptions and approach. It highlights the main observations and conclusions emerging from the survey of growth conditions in Mexico. It also presents an overview of remittances in Mexico, motivated by their recent increase and possible macroeconomic implications.
Ms. Katerina Smídková, Viktor Kotlán, David Navrátil, and Mr. Ales Bulir
Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.
Vincent Belinga, Ms. Dora Benedek, Ruud A. de Mooij, and Mr. John Norregaard
By how much will faster economic growth boost government revenue? This paper estimates short- and long-run tax buoyancy in OECD countries between 1965 and 2012. We find that, for aggregate tax revenues, short-run tax buoyancy does not significantly differ from one in the majority of countries; yet, it has increased since the late 1980s so that tax systems have generally become better automatic stabilizers. Long-run buoyancy exceeds one in about half of the OECD countries, implying that GDP growth has helped improve structural fiscal deficit ratios. Corporate taxes are by far the most buoyant, while excises and property taxes are the least buoyant. For personal income taxes and social contributions, short- and long-run buoyancies have declined since the late 1980s and have, on average, become lower than one.