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Mr. Eduardo Borensztein, Mr. Peter Wickham, Mr. Mohsin S. Khan, and Ms. Carmen Reinhart

Abstract

This paper analyzes global commodity trends and concludes that the marked decline in real commodity prices of the past decade should be regarded as largely permanent and irreversible. The authors contend that the analysis of commodity prices should be extended to include the role of the breakdown of major international commodity agreements. In addition, the authors analyze how developments in the former Soviet Union have affected commodity supply conditions.

Mr. Mohsin S. Khan and Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

One of the more important yet puzzling aspects of the recent global stagflation has been the rather surprising resiliency of growth rates of real income in non-oil developing countries during the 1973-80 period in the face of the marked slowdown of corresponding growth rates in the industrial world. The primary purpose of this paper is to shed some light on this phenomenon by examining the relationship between the rate of economic growth in the non-oil developing countries and that in the industrial countries over the past decade or so.

Mr. P. van den Boogaerde

Abstract

Arab financial assistance to developing - particularly Arab - countries rose sharply between 1973 and 1980 but fell gradually through the 1980s, owing mainly to weakening oil prices. As a percent of GNP, however, Arab contributions remain the largest among major donors. This paper surveys the volume and distribution of Arab financing from 1973 to 1989.

Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte, Mr. Rolando Ossowski, Mr. Theo Thomas, and Mr. Paulo A Medas

Abstract

Oil-producing countries have benefited from rising oil prices in recent years, with important implications for their external and fiscal balances. The average price of oil tripled from US$18 a barrel in 1999 to US$53 a barrel in 2005, and rose further in 2006–07. The associated increase in oil exports and fiscal oil revenues had major macroeconomic and fiscal implications for oil-producing countries heavily dependent on oil revenues. External current accounts and fiscal balances have strengthened in many oil-producing countries. Moreover, policymakers conducted fiscal policy in a context where markets and observers increasingly came to expect a significant portion of the rise in oil prices to be long-lasting.

Mr. Mohsin S. Khan and Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

For the past hundred years the rate of growth of output in the developing world has depended on the rate of growth of output in the developed world. When the developed grow fast the developing grow fast, and when the developed slow down, the developing slow down. Is this linkage inevitable?1

Jahangir Amuzegar

Abstract

Not unpredictably, there is a complex energy bind as we approach the end of the twentieth century. The oil importing industrial countries have anchored their industries, their means of transportation, their home comfort—in short, their whole energy-dependent lifestyle—largely to hydrocarbon fuels. For most of these countries, as well as the majority of the oil importing developing countries, domestic oil (and gas) needs must be supplied partly or largely from abroad. The major international hydrocarbon suppliers, in turn, are limited to a relatively small group of oil exporting developing countries, most of whom are members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Ms. Nada Choueiri, Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders, Mr. Yuri V Sobolev, Mr. Jan Walliser, and Mr. Sherwyn Williams

Abstract

The decade of the 1990s was surely one of the most dramatic periods in Yemen‧ s rich history. Unification of the two Yemens, rapid development of an oil sector, and a radically changed external environment fundamentally transformed the opportunities and challenges the Yemeni people face. This paper summarizes economic developments in Yemen during the 1990s, takes stock of the many structural changes in the economy during the decade, and identifies reforms that are needed if Yemen is to move to a path of rapid and sustainable growth, reduce rampant poverty, and responsibly manage the highly volatile economic rents from its oil wealth. It is hoped that this paper will contribute to the ongoing debate in Yemen on the appropriate development strategy for the coming years.

Jahangir Amuzegar

Abstract

For the first time in postwar history, if not indeed the history of the modern world, energy management has become an overriding global economic, strategic, and political issue. Worldwide inflation, continued slow growth of industrial economies, high and widespread unemployment, and the discouraging prospects for the poorer non-oil developing countries are often linked to the so-called energy crisis. The emergence of this phenomenon is of crucial significance not only in the internal development strategies of the major oil exporting and large oil importing countries but also in the ongoing North/South relations, the old East/West competition, and the new North/North and South/South cooperation.

Ms. Nada Choueiri, Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders, Mr. Yuri V Sobolev, Mr. Jan Walliser, and Mr. Sherwyn Williams

Abstract

Economic developments in Yemen in the 1990s were driven largely by dramatic changes in the political sphere—in particular, by unification and civil war—and by external events, chief among which was the Gulf crisis at the beginning of the decade. A third major influence was the massive debt overhang inherited from the previous political regimes.

Mr. Mohsin S. Khan and Mr. Morris Goldstein

Abstract

In this section we begin our investigation into how the rate of growth of real income in industrial countries affects the income growth rate in non-oil developing countries by considering the relationship between income growth in the former and export growth in the latter.