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The overall fiscal position improved and the reduction in domestic arrears was triple the program target. The direct impact of the global financial crisis on Djibouti has been limited. The financial system has not been affected by the global crisis, and capital adequacy has improved slightly despite increased competition. GDP growth remained strong in 2008, and inflation decelerated during the fourth quarter. The risk of external debt distress remains high. Banks remain profitable and have not been affected by the global financial crisis.
The article is a review on Djibouti’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program and the performance of economic development in the program. The ECF program helped Djibouti to maintain macroeconomic stability, and the period underwent a transformation in the Djiboutian economy. The country saw an economic increase, and the banking system boomed. A positive thought of economic growth is projected in 2012, so plans were targeted to pursue fiscal reforms to improve debt sustainability, strengthening the banking sectors. The authorities of the Executive Board expect another program similar to the ECF.
The most important challenge faced by the Djibouti authorities is to achieve high rates of economic growth in order to create employment opportunities for a rapidly increasing labor force and to alleviate rising poverty. In this paper, developments and the role of the financial system during the program period are reviewed. Then, the currency board arrangement (CBA) and its role in macroeconomic developments are discussed. The study also discusses the main financial sector reforms and explains why their impact has been limited.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Djibouti is undergoing an investment boom that would accelerate economic growth. Aggregate investment is projected to rise from 26 percent of GDP in 2010-13 to 52 percent in 2014-16. GDP growth is expected to rise from 6 percent in 2014 to about 7 percent in 2015-19. Inflation is projected to pick up from 3 percent in 2014 to 3.3 percent in 2015-19 as the large investment spending fuels demand for housing and basic services. Central bank gross foreign assets are projected to remain strong, permitting full currency board coverage over the period 2015-19.
Djibouti is expanding its infrastructure to leverage its strategic location and foster growth, reduce poverty, and create jobs. The remarkable investments in ports and railways-started in 2015 and mostly debt-financed by financial institutions from China-presents opportunities as well as risks. With public debt rising from 50 to 85 percent of GDP in just two years, the authorities need to advance rapidly with critical reforms. Such reforms would aim at translating the investment boom into strong, inclusive, and job-creating growth to reduce poverty and return to a sustainable debt trajectory given the current high risk of debt distress. While there is strong ownership of such reforms under the authorities' Vision Djibouti 2035, close government coordination will be needed to ensure their effective implementation.