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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
For a few months in late 2000 and early 2001, Turkey hovered on the brink of economic collapse. High inflation, a large public debt, a growing current account deficit, and delays in restructuring the economy triggered a loss of confidence among investors and caused a run on the country’s banks. To deal with the crisis, the government undertook a sharp fiscal correction, floated the exchange rate, and initiated wide-ranging structural reforms as part of an ambitious package supported by the IMF. Three years later, Turkey is on its way to becoming a new tiger economy. But it has faltered before. Will it manage to stay the course this time? Michael Deppler and Reza Moghadam—respectively Director and Assistant Director in the IMF’s European Department—spoke with Camilla Andersen of the IMF Survey about the country’s prospects.
Natalija Novta and Evgenia Pugacheva
Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent lower ten years after conflict onset. The onset of conflict often also induces significant refugee outflows to neighboring non-advanced countries in the short run, and relatively small but very persistent refugee outflows to advanced countries over the long run. Finally, we stress that conflict should be defined in terms of the number of people killed relative to the total population. The traditional definition of conflict—based on the absolute number of deaths—skews the sample toward low-intensity conflicts in large countries, thereby understating the negative effects of conflict from a macroeconomic perspective.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Are we thinking about tomorrow? We should be, says Peter S. Heller, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, whose new book, Who Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges, makes an urgent plea for getting serious about the major changes under way. His study offers in-depth analyses of the challenges facing both developing and industrial countries and provides practical policy advice on what can be done now to reduce potential fiscal burdens. Heller spoke recently with Sean M. Culhane of the IMF’s External Relations Department about the book and what he hopes it will accomplish.

Mr. Bjoern Rother, Ms. Gaelle Pierre, Davide Lombardo, Risto Herrala, Ms. Priscilla Toffano, Mr. Erik Roos, Mr. Allan G Auclair, and Ms. Karina Manasseh
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.