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International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
The IMF’s surveillance framework encompasses a new focus on multilateral issues, and especially the spillovers from one economy onto others. This third Annual Report of the Independent Evaluation Office describes ongoing and recently completed evaluations and discusses additions to IEO’s work plan. General lessons pertaining to IMF surveillance emerging from recent evaluations are highlighted and discussed, namely the need for better integration of financial and macroeconomic factors as well as bilateral and multilateral policy analysis and policy prescriptions. The findings of an External Evaluation Panel charged with assessing the work of the IEO are also covered.
Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments within the existing regime. Distinguishing episodes characterized by "exchange market pressure" from orderly exits, the estimated probabilities of alternative exit episodes indicate that crises are preceded by a deterioration of economic conditions. In contrast, orderly exits to less flexible regimes are preceded by long regime duration, a decline in financial liabilities of the banking system, and an increase in official reserves. Exits to more flexible regimes are associated with both emerging market and other developing countries, and an increase in trade openness and government borrowing from banks. The results are robust to alternative sensitivity analyses and have reasonable predictive performance, confirming that economic and financial conditions and regime duration play important roles in determining the future course of exchange rate regimes.
Rachel F Wang, Mr. Timothy C Irwin, and Lewis K Murara
Although there are several measures of fiscal transparency, none provides satisfactory
information on certain issues of macroeconomic relevance, including whether fiscal data
are available for all of general government, whether the government reports a balance
sheet, and whether spending and revenue are reported on a cash or accrual basis. Drawing
on government finance statistics reported to the IMF, this paper presents a new database
of fiscal transparency for 186 countries in 2003–13 and derives from it indices of the
overall comprehensiveness of fiscal statistics as well as specific indices of the coverage of
public institutions, fiscal flows, and fiscal stocks, respectively. It finds evidence of gradual
improvement, most notably in the coverage of institutions, but most countries’ reporting
remains far from comprehensive
In December 2008, the IMF Executive Board discussed the Seventh Review of Data Standards Initiatives, and Directors requested staff to return to the Board within about a year with a proposal for the inclusion of selected financial indicators in the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). This paper responds to the 2008 request taking into account recent developments.
The recent financial crisis has heightened the need for policymakers, financial regulators and capital market participants to put in place conditions that would help prevent the occurrence of similar crises in the future. One of the areas identified by the international community as key in crises prevention is the availability of timely and more detailed financial data that could provide early warning signals of impending risks and vulnerabilities
The past five years have seen an expansion of the scope of FSAPs to assess countries' macroprudential policy (MaPP) frameworks. This note documents this increase and offers some suggestions on how the treatment of MaPP issues in FSAPs can be further strengthened and better integrated into the overall financial stability assessment.
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
This volume examines the impact on economic performance of structural policies-policies that increase the role of market forces and competition in the economy, while maintaining appropriate regulatory frameworks. The results reflect a new dataset covering reforms of domestic product markets, international trade, the domestic financial sector, and the external capital account, in 91 developed and developing countries. Among the key results of this study, the authors find that real and financial reforms (and, in particular, domestic financial liberalization, trade liberalization, and agricultural liberalization) boost income growth. However, growth effects differ significantly across alternative reform sequencing strategies: a trade-before-capital-account strategy achieves better outcomes than the reverse, or even than a "big bang"; also, liberalizing the domestic financial sector together with the external capital account is growth-enhancing, provided the economy is relatively open to international trade. Finally, relatively liberalized domestic financial sectors enhance the economy's resilience, reducing output costs from adverse terms-of-trade and interest-rate shocks; increased credit availability is one of the key mechanisms.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx