Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 92 items for :

  • Commodity Markets x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is emerging from recession, but the recovery is expected to be sluggish. While financial conditions have continued to improve, many markets remain highly dependent on public support, and downside risks prevail. In the United States and many advanced economies, growth and employment will remain weak in coming years. In turn, Canada has shown comparative resilience despite sizable shocks. A permanent loss in potential output, weak private consumption, and much higher debt levels in the United States will be negative legacies of the crisis that could adversely affect the Latin America and Caribbean region.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Global activity strengthened in the second half of 2013 and is expected to pick up further in 2014–15, on account of a faster recovery in the advanced economies. In contrast, the growth momentum in emerging markets remains subdued, reflecting tighter external financing conditions and homemade weaknesses in some cases. Risks around the outlook for global growth have diminished somewhat, but remain tilted to the downside.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The LAC region is doing considerably better than in past crises, but there is growing heterogeneity within the region. External shocks to remittances and tourism are still playing out and will continue to affect countries in Central America and the Caribbean. In contrast, some of the larger economies have already bottomed out. These varying output dynamics, coupled with differing room for policy maneuver, are shaping policy challenges in the near term. In addition, long-lasting legacies from the global crisis will have significant implications for the region.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to remain relatively subdued in 2014. While the faster recovery of the advanced economies should strengthen external demand, this effect is likely to be offset by the negative impact of lower commodity prices and tighter financial conditions on domestic demand. Policy priorities include strengthening public finances, addressing potential financial fragilities, and implementing structural reforms to ease supply-side constraints and raise potential growth.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A stronger U.S. recovery will impart a positive impulse primarily to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, whereas the anticipated normalization of U.S. monetary policy will affect all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Traditional exposures to U.S. interest rates have diminished, as governments in LAC have reduced their reliance on U.S. dollar–denominated debt. However, U.S. monetary shocks also spill over into local funding and foreign exchange markets. Spillovers to domestic bond yields have typically been contained over the past decade, but the market turmoil of mid-2013 illustrates the risk of outsized responses under certain conditions. In a smooth normalization scenario, net capital inflows to LAC are unlikely to reverse, although new risk premium shocks could trigger outflow pressures. Countries cannot fully protect themselves against such external shocks, but strong balance sheets and credible policy frameworks provide resilience in the face of financial volatility.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Although it has faced larger external shocks this time, the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has fared noticeably better than in the earlier three global downturns since the 1980s. It has also fared better than other emerging markets. This better performance can be attributed to stronger and more credible policy frameworks, which led to lower banking, external, and fiscal vulnerabilities and allowed some LAC countries to react with monetary or fiscal policy easing.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This chapter takes another look at the commodity boom experienced by Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since the early 2000s and analyzes how the region will be affected by a more subdued outlook for commodity prices. The analysis suggests that growth in the years ahead could be significantly lower than during the commodity boom even if commodity prices were to remain stable at their current relatively high levels. The results caution against trying to offset the current economic slowdown with demand-side stimulus and underscore the need for ambitious structural reforms to secure strong growth over the medium term.