This paper examines economic developments and policies in Canada during 1990–95. Spurred by the robust growth in the United States and the easing of monetary conditions between 1991 and 1993, economic growth in Canada continued to strengthen during 1994. Real GDP grew by 4.5 percent in 1994 after growing by 2.2 percent in 1993 and 0.6 percent in 1992. Economic growth in 1994 was led by exports and investment in machinery and equipment. However, growth was more broadly based in 1994; private consumption strengthened, and there was a rebound in residential and nonresidential construction.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the long-term fiscal position of Canada. Simulations based on current tax and spending policies suggest that the fiscal position will remain favorable until well into the middle of the century, and relatively modest adjustments would be required to make these policies sustainable in the long term. The analysis also illustrates that these conclusions could be easily overturned if pressures to spend the planning surpluses that are expected to emerge in coming years are not resisted, and if measures are not put in place to contain the cost of health care.
The AIDS epidemic is straining the limited resources available to many developing country governments. How can governments provide support to those affected by AIDS without neglecting others in need or abandoning important development goals?
Canada’s 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that it has benefited from a strong institutional framework and continuing structural reforms. Inflation targeting and structural reforms have yielded an enviable macroeconomic performance, including the fastest growth rate and the strongest budget position in the G-7. The outlook for the economy is broadly favorable, but external developments are creating uncertainties. The Bank of Canada appears to have room to maintain a patient and measured approach to withdrawing stimulus.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Informational Annex highlights the Canadian authorities’ free-floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate regime is free from exchange restrictions and multiple currency practices. The Canadian authorities do not maintain margins with respect to exchange transactions. However, the authorities may intervene to ensure orderly conditions in the exchange market. There are no taxes or subsidies on purchases or sales of foreign exchange. Canada’s exchange system is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. Canada also maintains exchange restrictions for security reasons, based on UN Security Council resolutions reported to the IMF for approval.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the factors that may explain high and persistent unemployment in Canada, with particular emphasis on the role that a decline in the relative cost of capital may have had on trend unemployment. The analysis suggests that in Canada a declining trend in the cost of capital, associated with technological changes and innovations, has been an important factor in explaining the rise and persistence of unemployment. The paper also analyzes recent trends in personal saving in Canada and macroeconomic effects of the government debt
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix constructs an index of human capital for the Spanish labor force over 1977–97, and projects it over the next decade on the basis of likely demographic developments. The methodology by which the index is constructed considers both educational attainments resulting from formal schooling and improvements in workers’ productivity resulting from experience, or “learning by doing.” The results suggest that the gains from increases in formal schooling can be large, although they are translated into higher economic growth only gradually.
The Canadian monetary and fiscal policies have remained accommodative, reflecting in large measure the effective response to the crisis. Canada is expected to set the appropriate policy mix in the future, at a time of high uncertainty and significant external headwinds. Given the advanced stage of the recovery, a still-large budget deficit, and the need to address long-term fiscal challenges, fiscal policy has moved toward a tightening stance. Resilient household credit has helped sustain private consumption and the construction sector during the crisis.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom reviews the IMF's Global Economy Model, which incorporates energy to examine the impact of rising energy prices on the United Kingdom. The model incorporates energy as a final consumption good as well as a primary input in the production process. With energy entering the production process, increases in energy costs affect overall aggregate supply capacity as firms reduce output and factor-utilization rates given the real increase in their cost structures.
This Selected Issues paper reviews developments in health care spending in France and discusses the recent measures to improve the functioning of the system and contain costs. It argues that by addressing many of the issues that had bedeviled past reforms, the new measures offer a reasonable hope of containing France’s health expenditures. The paper presents a brief review of the institutional background and of past trends in health care spending and also offers an analysis of the major forces behind the recent and projected growth in expenditure.