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  • Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy x
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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is emerging from recession, but the recovery is expected to be sluggish. While financial conditions have continued to improve, many markets remain highly dependent on public support, and downside risks prevail. In the United States and many advanced economies, growth and employment will remain weak in coming years. In turn, Canada has shown comparative resilience despite sizable shocks. A permanent loss in potential output, weak private consumption, and much higher debt levels in the United States will be negative legacies of the crisis that could adversely affect the Latin America and Caribbean region.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The LAC region is doing considerably better than in past crises, but there is growing heterogeneity within the region. External shocks to remittances and tourism are still playing out and will continue to affect countries in Central America and the Caribbean. In contrast, some of the larger economies have already bottomed out. These varying output dynamics, coupled with differing room for policy maneuver, are shaping policy challenges in the near term. In addition, long-lasting legacies from the global crisis will have significant implications for the region.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Although it has faced larger external shocks this time, the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has fared noticeably better than in the earlier three global downturns since the 1980s. It has also fared better than other emerging markets. This better performance can be attributed to stronger and more credible policy frameworks, which led to lower banking, external, and fiscal vulnerabilities and allowed some LAC countries to react with monetary or fiscal policy easing.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The global crisis put fiscal policymaking at the forefront, highlighting differences in policy frameworks and preparedness within the region. Countries' circumstances prior to the crisis, largely reflecting past fiscal behavior, shaped the varied fiscal policy responses that Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) governments have recently taken. The experience of 2009 confirms that some LAC governments do have “space” to support economic activity during a major downturn. But the experience also draws attention to limits on such space, as well as the need for fiscal policymaking and frameworks to evolve—to be prepared for future shocks.

Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen and Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
State budgets in the United States played a significant macroeconomic role in the 1970s and 1980s, and the level of cyclical responsiveness was affected by the severity of statutory and constitutional fiscal restraints. Moving from no fiscal restraints to the most stringent restraints lowered the fiscal offset to income fluctuations by around 40 percent. Simulations indicate that a reduction in aggregate fiscal stabilizers of this size could lead to a significant increase in the variance of aggregate output.
International Monetary Fund
This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1993 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period. Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201
Mr. M. Cangiano and Mr. Eric Mottu
European Economic and Monetary Union does not envisage creating a central fiscal authority. Monetary and exchange rate policies will be centralized, but fiscal policy will remain a national responsibility, in line with the subsidiarity principle. This paper argues that monetary union will generate pressures for closer economic integration than currently envisaged. Although not a necessity, a more active central role could then be justified on the grounds of allocative efficiency, redistribution, and stabilization. While in the short term enhanced policy coordination may address those pressures satisfactorily, as economic integration proceeds, the case for a central fiscal authority may become stronger.
Sheetal K. Chand
This paper deals with aggregate demand fluctuations and their price and output effects. Starting with a nominal income solution, a rule for determining the inflation and output growth effects is presented. Assigning alternative values to the key parameters of the suggested rule generates different closure rules, such as the classical and the Keynesian and their modern counterparts. An application to major industrial country data indicates that the suggested rule is robust. Both inflation and output growth are affected by nominal shocks, but response patterns vary among the countries.
Inaki Aldasoro and Mr. Mike Seiferling
Delegating fiscal decision making power to sub-national governments has been an area of interest for both academics and policymakers given the expectation that it may lead to better and more efficient provision of public goods and services. Decentralization has, however, often occurred on the expenditure and less on the revenue side, creating “vertical fiscal imbalances” where sub-national governments’ expenditures are not financed through their own revenues. The mismatch between own revenues and expenditures may have consequences for public finance performance. This study constructs a large sample of general and subnational level fiscal data beginning in 1980 from the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. Extending the literature to the balance sheet approach, this paper examines the effects of vertical fiscal imbalances on government debt. The results indicate that vertical fiscal imbalances are relevant in explaining government debt accumulation suggesting a degree of caution when promoting fiscal decentralization. This paper also underlines the role of data covering the general government and its subectors for comprehensive analysis of fiscal performance.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

El efecto de la crisis financiera y la recesión mundial en la región de América Latina y el Caribe fue considerable, pero para la mayoría de los países lo peor ya quedó atrás. La región evitó caer en una crisis propia, mostrando resultados relativamente buenos a pesar de los fuertes shocks externos. Muchos países han reanudado su senda de crecimiento. Hoy en día, la región hace frente al reto de adaptarse a una nueva coyuntura internacional que no es tan favorable como antes. La última edición del informe analiza las enseñanzas obtenidas y un programa de políticas a partir del desempeño reciente de la región de América Latina y el Caribe, también basándose en la experiencia internacional más amplia. Se publica en forma semestral, en mayo y octubre.