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Peter H. Gleick

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

William R. Cline

Commodity Boom: How Long Will It Last?" asks how economies will fare after the record-high prices of key raw materials posted in recent months, which build on dramatic increases from their lows of 2000. The lead article warns that the impact on headline inflation levels might persist throughout 2008, even without further commodity price hikes. It urges policymakers to ensure efficient functioning of market forces at the global level, and to move swiftly to protect the poorest. Another article addresses the effects of climate change on agriculture, warning that farm production will fall dramatically-especially in developing countries-if steps are not taken to curb carbon emissions. Other articles on this theme argue that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need not hobble economies, and that financial markets can help address climate change. "People in Economics" profiles John Taylor; "Picture This" says the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; "Country Focus" spotlights South Africa; and "Straight Talk" examines early warnings provided by credit derivatives. Also in this issue, articles examine China's increasing economic engagement with Africa, and the outsourcing of service jobs to other countries.

Mr. Richard T. Harmsen and Mr. Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

The Final Act of the Uruguay Round was signed in Marrakesh in April 1994, bringing to a conclusion the eighth and most ambitious set of multilateral trade negotiations. One hundred and twenty-five countries participated in the Round, which will reduce tariff and nontariff barriers to trade in goods, strengthen trade rules and extend multilateral rules to new areas—services and intellectual property—and establish the World Trade Organization. Developing countries participated more actively in the negotiations than hitherto and will be more fully integrated into the multilateral trading system after the Round. This paper investigates the economic implications of these different aspects of the Uruguay Round on industrial, developing, and transition economies, based on information available at the time of preparation of the paper. A quick reference guide to the Round provides a synopsis of the main results (Appendix I) and should be read in conjunction with individual sections below.

Ms. Nur Calika and Uwe Corsepius

Abstract

Trade reforms are being increasingly featured in the design of adjustment programs supported by Fund resources. This paper reviews the trade policy content of Fund-supported programs approved in the period 1990–93.2

Mr. Michael P. Leidy

Abstract

Antidumping is by far the most frequently used (GATT-legal) instrument of administered or contingent protection2 among industrial countries, and its use has been spreading in recent years with developing countries, and some transition countries, taking an increasing interest in formal antidumping measures. Whether antidumping is a problem or a solution in the multilateral trading system depends on what countries aim to achieve through antidumping policies, whether it is an appropriate instrument to achieve these objectives, and whether the benefits appear to justify the implied social costs.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.

The December issue of the Research Bulletin looks at “Seven Questions about Climate Change” (Rabah Arezki and Akito Matsumoto). The Research Summaries review “Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth” (Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Frederik Toscani) and “Malaysia: Achieving High-Income Status through Resilience and Inclusive Growth” (Alex Mourmouras and Naimh Sheridan). The issue also includes regular updates on new IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, IMF books, and the IMF Economic Review.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Mr. Serhan Cevik and João Tovar Jalles
Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change and sovereign risk. This paper therefore investigates the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on sovereign bond yields and spreads in 98 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995–2017. We find that the vulnerability and resilience to climate change have a significant impact on the cost government borrowing, after controlling for conventional determinants of sovereign risk. That is, countries that are more resilient to climate change have lower bond yields and spreads relative to countries with greater vulnerability to risks associated with climate change. Furthermore, partitioning the sample into country groups reveals that the magnitude and statistical significance of these effects are much greater in developing countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.