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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Korea’s economic strength testifies to its success in adapting to the changing global economic landscape by pursuing forward-looking and prudent policies. While near-term economic prospects are generally favorable, risks are mainly to the downside.

S. Ibi Ajayi

This paper examines how Africa can reposition itself to take full advantage of globalization—while minimizing the risks in the process—to accelerate economic growth and reduce poverty. The paper highlights that Africa’s share of world trade has dwindled, foreign direct investment in most countries has remained at low levels, and the income gap relative to advanced countries has widened. The paper looks at why Africa has missed out so far on the benefits of globalization, and indicates what steps Africa now needs to take to boost economic growth.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors met in Montreal on October 24—25 to discuss the state of the world economy, associated policy challenges, and ways to address potential weaknesses in the international financial system. IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler participated in the meeting. In a statement released on October 25, ministers and governors welcomed “the continuing strengthening of global economic growth,” but said they remained “mindful of the importance of sound national and economic and financial policies in building an international financial system that is less prone to crisis.”

Mr. Clinton R. Shiells, Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, Mr. Vladimir Klyuev, and Raghuram Rajan
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Mr. Ayhan Kose, Mr. Marco Terrones, and Mr. Eswar S Prasad
This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.
Valentin F. Lang and Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
We study economic globalization as a multidimensional process and investigate its effect on incomes. In a panel of 147 countries during 1970-2014, we apply a new instrumental variable, exploiting globalization’s geographically diffusive character, and find differential gains from globalization both across and within countries: Income gains are substantial for countries at early and medium stages of the globalization process, but the marginal returns diminish as globalization rises, eventually becoming insignificant. Within countries, these gains are concentrated at the top of national income distributions, resulting in rising inequality. We find that domestic policies can mitigate the adverse distributional effects of globalization.
Ms. Christine Lagarde

Abstract

I am grateful for the opportunity to deliver a lecture in honor of Sylvia Ostry, the great Canadian economist and policymaker, and above all, the woman pioneer who broke into the closed world of high finance and sherpa-dom that still is largely a man’s world.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper focuses on concerns over wages, jobs, and future prospects are real and pressing for those who are not well equipped to thrive in this new world. History clearly tells us that closing borders or increasing protectionism is not the way to go. Many countries have tried this route, and just as many have failed. Instead, we need to pursue policies that extend the benefits of openness and integration while alleviating their side effects. Emerging and developing economies have been the prime beneficiaries of economic openness. According to the World Bank, trade has helped reduce by half the pro¬portion of the global population living in extreme poverty. China, for instance, saw a phenomenal drop in its extreme poverty rate—from 36 percent at the end of the 1990s to 6 percent in 2011. Another example is Vietnam, which—in a single generation—moved from being one of the world’s poorest nations to middle-in¬come status—which has allowed for increased investments in health and education.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Following are edited excerpts of the opening address by IMF Managing Director Horst Köhler to the Board of Governors of the IMF on September 26 in Prague.