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Mr. Parthasarathi Shome
The 1980s trends were to lower marginal personal income tax rates, scale down rate structures, and apply the highest rate at lower levels of per capita GDP. In the 1990s, driven by fiscal deficits and unemployment, and difficulty in linking high marginal rates to low incentives or revenue productivity, tax authorities are again demonstrating an interest in increasing marginal rates. This will burden those that are correctly paying the tax. Instead, equity and revenue productivity should be improved through minimum taxes, presumptive taxes, adequate inclusion of capital income in the tax base, revitalization of property taxes, and selected luxury taxes.

This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates do not adjust to inflation because of a high degree of substitutability between money and bonds. It is emphasized that the substitutability between nominal assets and capital renders the hypothesis inconsistent with the data when inflation persistence is high. Using a switching regression model, the analysis allows the reflection of inflation in interest rates to vary according to the degree of inflation persistence or forecastability. The hypothesis is supported by U.S. data only when inflation forecastability is below a certain threshold.

Efraim Sadka and Mr. Vito Tanzi

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.