International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that the distribution of income and wealth in developing countries has become a matter of great concern to all those interested in development. The paper highlights that in Latin America, the poorest half of the population receives about the same share of income as the top 1 percent and the lowest 70–75 percent of the population the same share as the top 5 percent. It is clear that the distribution of income and wealth will have substantial implications for the pattern of consumption and production in developing countries.
The Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s macroeconomic developments have remained broadly positive, despite high international fuel and food prices and the near-term drought impact. Supported by a rapid growth in manufacturing industries, non-oil output is expected to grow by 4.8 percent in 2011 despite the drought-related downturn in agricultural production. A low price pass-through and a prudent monetary policy helped contain inflation. Booming mining exports helped narrow the current account deficit and boost foreign exchange reserves to unprecedented levels.
This paper aims to inform on the status of Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) in IMF-supported programs, detailing the results presented in the recent review of PRGF-supported programs. The review showed that more needs to be done, both in undertaking PSIA when necessary, and in reporting the policy tradeoffs in program documents. Policy design should be continuously informed by the results of PSIA.
This Selected Issues paper documents the main features of the current monetary policy regime in Mozambique, describe ongoing structural policy changes announced by the central bank, and analyze the main challenges facing the central bank in the process to modernize its monetary policy framework. Recognizing the signaling value of interest rates to anchor inflation expectations and help influence market interest rates, the paper usefully focuses on the needed reforms to enable the central bank to successfully replace monetary aggregates by interest rate as the main instrument of monetary policy. Deepening the understanding of the obstacles on the way to a smooth monetary transmission, further building the central bank inflation forecasting capacity, strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing central bank communications and modernizing the legal framework to ensure central bank operational autonomy are essential to the success of the new monetary regime. Importantly, the presence of a committed and strong technical team and a reform-oriented management should greatly facilitate the implementation of these vital central bank reforms.
This paper provides empirical evidence that the propensity for political instability in the Central African Republic (C.A.R.) has been increased by low tax revenues and deteriorations in the terms of trade. The direct effect of political instability on economic growth is not statistically significant, once account is taken of domestic investment, and economic growth in neighboring countries. The policy implications are: (i) mobilization of domestic revenues to pay public employees' salaries and provide basic social services would lower the probability of coups; (ii) economic diversification would reduce the propensity for adverse terms of trade shocks to fuel coups; and (iii) neighboring countries' efforts to resolve conflicts and achieve sustained growth would be beneficial for the C.A.R.'s economic performance.
We present estimates of welfare by country for 2007 and 2014 using the methodology of
Jones and Klenow (2016) which incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality and
inequality, and we extend the methodology to include environmental externalities. During
the period of the global financial crisis welfare grew slightly more rapidly than income per
capita, mainly due to improvements in life expectancy. This led to welfare convergence in
most regions towards advanced country levels. Introducing environmental effects changes
the welfare ranking for countries that rely heavily on natural resources, highlighting the
importance of the natural resource base in welfare. This methodology could provide a
theoretically consistent and tractable way of monitoring progress in several Sustainable
Development Goal (SDG) indicators.
This Selected Issues paper takes stock of Indonesia’s performance against the original macroeconomic objectives under the IMF’s extended arrangement. The paper compares the performance of the Indonesian economy in the post-crisis period with that of the other major “crisis” countries in the region. It reviews the background to the current extended arrangement and describes the core macroeconomic objectives of the program. The paper also considers Indonesia’s performance against objectives for growth, inflation, the balance of payments, and improving Indonesia’s debt sustainability.