Ljubica Dordevic, Caio Ferreira, Moses Kitonga, and Katharine Seal
The paper employs two complementary strategies. First, it is pursues textual analysis (text mining) of the assessment reports to identify successes and challenges the authorities are facing. Second, it analyzes the grades in the Basel Core Principles assessments, including their evolution and association with bank fragility.
The Paraguayan authorities have prepared an economic program to stabilize their macroeconomic situation and begin a process of structural reform. Fiscal adjustment and structural reforms should pave the way for more rapid growth over the medium term. Despite these expected improvements in economic policies and performance, Paraguay remains vulnerable to external shocks. The fiscal situation has deteriorated sharply in recent years. Severe financing constraints have produced sizable public sector payments arrears. On the revenue side, the government's fiscal strategy is to raise revenues while minimizing increases in tax rates.
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Grenada. Four of the six quantitative performance criteria for end-November 2009 were met. The primary balance, excluding the grants target, was missed by 3.3 percent of GDP owing to higher-than-expected expenditures related to donor-financed capital projects and overruns on current spending associated with a sharp rise in unpaid invoices less than 60 days old. The authorities are requesting waivers for the missed performance criteria based on their implementation of corrective measures.
Significant fiscal slippages in late 2015 and early 2016, compounded by negative spillovers from Nigeria, led to a deterioration of the macroeconomic situation. The election in March 2016 of a new president who campaigned for a clear break with past policies offers an opportunity to implement sensible policies to promote inclusive and sustainable growth and reduce poverty. The authorities have launched an ambitious reform agenda and reaffirmed their commitment to preserving macroeconomic stability and medium-term debt sustainability.
The paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for the Kyrgyz Republic. Output is rebounding and inflation remains subdued. However, most end-December 2006 and end-March 2007 structural benchmarks have been missed, partly because of political tensions that slowed the legislature. The 2007 program, which targets 6½ percent output growth and 5 percent inflation, caps the fiscal deficit at 3.1 percent of GDP and maintains a prudent monetary policy. The government plans to implement delayed structural measures under the program, and strengthen external debt management.
Fueled by a rebound in agriculture and improved electricity supply, economic growth reached 6.7 percent in 2006–07, and is on track to exceed 7 percent in 2007–08. In mid-2007, significant portfolio capital inflows put pressure on liquidity management. In the first quarter of 2007–08, fiscal performance was strong, but inflationary pressures intensified. After continuing to depreciate in most of 2007, the exchange rate recently reversed course. Strengthening monetary control is the key to reducing inflationary pressures and reining in high and volatile T-bill rates.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The FSAP work was mostly conducted prior to the COVID-19 crisis. Given the FSAP’s focus on medium-term challenges and tail risks, its findings and recommendations for strengthening policy and institutional frameworks remain pertinent. As the growth projections were significantly revised downward since the FSAP, the quantitative risk analysis on bank solvency was complemented to include illustrative scenarios to quantify the possible implications of the COVID-19 shock on bank solvency.