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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines migration patterns in Norway and their implications for estimates of potential output. It applies a new methodology proposed by Borio and others (2013) to estimate potential output by drawing on information about immigration and oil price movements. The paper also provides an overview of the recent trend in immigration in Norway and discusses various estimates of potential output using standard approaches. The results indicate that immigration plays a small but statistically significant role in the estimation of potential output for Norway. The data show that immigration inflows into Norway vary across source countries. The largest share of immigrants is from Poland, accounting for 15 percent of the total in 2012. Immigration patterns in Norway contain both cyclical and structural elements, but the latter seems dominant at least for now. Empirical results also suggest that immigration plays some role in determining potential output, however, its impact is quite small, consistent with the view that the recent immigration patterns are structural.
International Monetary Fund
This note estimates potential output for France during 1980–2010, using three distinct approaches, and discusses long-term growth prospects. The focus on capital taxation highlights the need for a broader reform of the French tax system to address the features that hamper job growth, investment, and productivity growth. This paper analyzes the impact of Basel III capital requirements on French banks and the French economy, and proposes policy recommendations. French banks should be able to meet the new requirements through earnings retention.
International Monetary Fund
This study discusses the Philippine output gap from three perspectives and evaluates the utility of the approaches for policymaking. Incentives in the Philippines appear broadly comparable with those in neighboring countries. The reform would also improve short- and especially medium-term revenue collection. The general tax provisions and investment incentives in seven east-Asian economies are compared. The analysis focuses on stocks of foreign assets and liabilities and adopts a cross-country perspective to help determine the Philippines’ position within a broader universe of emerging market economies.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents an overview of the different methodologies that can be used to measure the amount of available slack in an economy. A comparison of these alternatives reveals that the evolution of the Nairu is crucial for understanding recent cyclical developments in the French economy. A comprehensive reform of the personal income tax has been assessed. This paper analyzes the expansion of high-tech activities, and reviews a number of policy issues connected with the development of an information and communication technology-based new economy.
Niamh Sheridan and Laurence M. Ball
This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare 7 OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to 13 that did not. After the early 1990s, performance improved along many dimensions for both targeting and nontargeting countries. In some cases, the targeters improved by more. However, these differences are explained by the fact that targeters performed worse than nontargeters before the early 1990s, and there is regression towards the mean. Once one controls for this, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance.