International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Since the end of violent conflict in April 2002, about 4 million displaced Angolans have returned to their communities, supported by a government-led initiative to provide emergency food aid and humanitarian assistance. Much remains to be done, however, to tackle widespread poverty, improve social and health conditions, and restore and update the physical infrastructure. In addition, the civil conflict has left the country with a sizable debt, a swollen public sector payroll, and largely unaccountable state institutions that dominate critical areas of the economy.
This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic fiscal risks and the benefits of improved fiscal risk management in Angola. Angola faces fiscal risks coming from multiple sources, such as volatility in oil prices and production, macroeconomic shocks, weak macroeconomic forecasting; weaknesses in public fiscal management, energy subsidies, potential delays of oil revenue transfers from the state-owned oil company Sonangol to the Treasury, and contingent liabilities from state-owned banks and enterprises. Addressing these risks requires action in various fronts, including more transparent fiscal reporting, improved forecasting of fiscal aggregates and other macroeconomic variables, developing a fiscal stabilization fund with more flexible deposit and withdrawal rules, strengthened public expenditure controls, and more timely oil revenue transfers from Sonangol to the Treasury.
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix on Angola underlie monetary policy framework. Angola has adopted an anti-inflation policy that has led to a sharp decline in inflation. To institute a monetary policy framework, a nominal anchor or constraint on the value of domestic currency must be established. Additional work to fine-tune the measures of currency in circulation, conduct more sophisticated tests to assess the relationship between inflation and the monetary aggregates, and determine how to incorporate the currency measure in monetary operations is needed.
This Selected Issues paper on Angola reports that oil production in Angola accounts for about half of GDP and about 75 percent of government revenue. The projections for the government’s fiscal position in the medium term will be crucially dependent on both the value of oil production and the proportion that will accrue to the government. However, in addition to the usual uncertainties associated with projections of the total value of oil output, the government’s share has been subject to volatility.