THE JAPANESE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS in the postwar period began to show a tendency to fluctuate in 1953, when it moved abruptly into deficit. Between 1952 and 1958, there were two cycles in Japan’s balance of payments. These cycles were examined in considerable detail by Narvekar,1 who brought out, on the basis of annual data, the interrelations between the domestic and international factors that were reflected in these movements in Japan’s external balance. The present paper traces the fluctuations in Japan’s balance of payments since 1959 and examines some of their characteristics. For this purpose, it draws on quarterly data on Japan’s balance of payments now available for the period beginning 1961 and estimated by the authors for 1959 and 1960. However, it does not attempt to relate these fluctuations in detail to developments in domestic or international demand and supply conditions.
Mr. Rabah Arezki, Mr. Klaus W. Deininger, and Mr. Harris Selod
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