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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights the rapid deterioration of economic conditions in South Sudan since the beginning of the civil conflict in late 2013. Real GDP growth declined by nearly 20 percent during 2015 and 2016, and annual inflation rose to about 550 percent in September 2016 before declining to 370 percent in January 2017. The medium-term outlook faces challenges and significant downside risks. Without significant progress toward peace and economic stabilization, the economic trajectory for South Sudan is highly unstable, and the country risks spiraling into a trap of deteriorating economic performance and worsening security with continued high humanitarian costs.
International Monetary Fund
Executive Directors commended Sudan's efforts to bring economic policies back on track and welcomed the establishment of a mechanism to save oil export receipts arising from higher-than-programmed oil prices, but underscored the need to strengthen budget control and monitoring systems. The audit of the Sudan Petroleum Company (SPC) was completed, and netting operations by public enterprises and the private sector were abolished. The authorities' medium-term strategy aims at consolidating macroeconomic stability, sustaining economic growth, and reducing poverty.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to a peace agreement in September 2018. Until the COVID-19 crisis broke out, improved political stability and an uptick in international oil prices led to significant progress, with a rebound in economic growth, a decline in inflation, and a stabilization of the exchange rate. The COVID-19 pandemic is severely disrupting South Sudan’s economy, leading to a sharp decline in projected growth (-3.6 percent in FY20/21, about 10 percentage points below the pre-pandemic baseline) and a contraction of oil export proceeds—the main source of exports and fiscal revenue—which has given rise to urgent balance of payments needs and opened a large fiscal financing gap.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
South Sudan is a very fragile post-conflict country. After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to an agreement for power-sharing in September 2018 and formed a unity government in February 2020. However, peace remains fragile in the face of difficult humanitarian and economic conditions. Already very high levels of poverty and food insecurity have been exacerbated by severe flooding in recent months. The floods (the worst in 60 years) have killed livestock, destroyed food stocks, and damaged crops ahead of the main harvest season. South Sudan’s economy has been hit hard by lower international oil prices following the COVID-19 pandemic.
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Sudan’s economic growth continued to be strong in 2006. Overall real GDP increased by 12 percent, despite a lower growth in oil production than previously projected. Non-oil GDP increased by roughly 10 percent—buoyed by a continued recovery in agriculture and strong activity in manufacturing, construction, and services. The fiscal position weakened in 2006, reflecting mostly oil revenue shortfalls. The external current account position also deteriorated, reaching a deficit of roughly 13 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Sudan’s 2005 Article IV Consultation and the Final Review of the 2004 and 2005 Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Between 2001 and 2004, the economy of Sudan grew at an average rate of 6.4 percent per year, and the non-oil sector expanded at an annual rate of 5.3 percent. The program for 2005 is based on prudent financial policies. The program will need to be adjusted by midyear to reflect additional financing arising from higher oil prices and aid and previously unfunded expenditures on social and infrastructure projects.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Sudan is facing significant domestic and international constraints and large macroeconomic imbalances despite efforts made toward macroeconomic stability and growth. Although good harvests boosted growth to close to 5 percent in 2015, external imbalances widened owing to low commodity export prices, expansionary policies, and insufficient exchange rate adjustment. The terms-of-trade shock widened the current account deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2015. The budget deficit widened to 1.9 percent of GDP owing to shortfalls in oil revenue. Inflation, which had been contained to 12.6 percent at end-2015, rose to 16.5 percent in July 2016. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks.
International Monetary Fund
Sudan has been adversely affected by the global crisis through a sharp decline in oil receipts. Executive Directors welcomed the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), which aimed to reduce the fiscal deficit, tighten monetary stance, and increase exchange rate flexibility. Directors urged the authorities to maintain prudent macroeconomic policies and to accelerate fiscal and financial sectors as well as structural reforms. Directors agreed that progress on debt relief under HIPC for Sudan is essential to remove the debt overhang and regain access to concessional financing for development and social projects.