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Mr. Jan Kees Martijn, Gabriel Di Bella, Mr. Shamsuddin Tareq, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Abebe Aemro Selassie

Abstract

Macroeconomic outcomes in low-income countries (LICs) have improved markedly in recent years, but important questions remain regarding possible adjustments in the design of IMF-supported programs in such countries. This paper draws on a review of the literature as well as the experience of 15 LICs that have attained some degree of macroeconomic stability to discuss, for example, the appropriate target range for inflation in shock-prone LICs; whether countries should use fiscal space to cut excessive tax burdens, reduce high debt levels, or raise public spending; and how the effectiveness of public expenditures can be improved.

Mr. F. Rozwadowski, Mr. Siddharth Tiwari, Mr. David Robinson, and Ms. Susan M Schadler

Abstract

This paper evaluates progress made under ESAF-supported programs in attaining external viability, restoring economic growth, and implementing structural reforms. Performance is evaluated for 19 countries that entered ESAF arrangements by mid-1992, against the background of their initial conditions, external environment, and implementation of structural and macroeconomic policies.

Mr. F. Rozwadowski, Mr. Siddharth Tiwari, Mr. David Robinson, and Ms. Susan M Schadler

Abstract

Ce document évalue les progrès réalisés dans le cadre des programmes appuyés par la FASR pour atteindre la viabilité extérieure, rétablir la croissance économique et mettre en œuvre les réformes structurelles. Les résultats sont évalués pour 19 pays qui avaient conclu des programmes au titre de la FASR à la mi-1992, en fonction de leurs conditions initiales, de l'environnement extérieur et de la mise en œuvre des politiques structurelles et macroéconomiques.

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mrs. Claire Liuksila, Mr. Henri Lorie, Mr. Walter Mahler, and Mr. Karim A. Nashashibi

Abstract

A strengthened fiscal position is at the core of most economic adjustment programs supported by IMF lending, especially for the poorer countries that draw on the IMF's structural adjustment facilities. This paper reviews developments in 23 countries and evaluates their experience with fiscal and structural adjustment, including their efforts to design social safety nets to cushion the effects of adjustment.

Mr. Andrew Berg, Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, and Mr. Mumtaz Hussain

Abstract

Aid facilitates a transfer of resources from donor to recipient countries that enables the recipients to increase consumption and investment. It thus presents an opportunity to reduce poverty, increase the standard of living, and generate sustained growth. However, the effective use of increased aid also presents challenges. Good projects must be found and managed, and conditions for budgetary support must be agreed upon and implemented. The imperative to use the funds well can strain the administrative capacity of recipient governments. In addition, aid flows can weaken country ownership of economic and social policies.

Ms. Sena Eken, Mr. John F. Laker, and Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria

Abstract

In late 1979, the African Center for Monetary Studies requested, on behalf of the Association of African Central Banks (AACB), that the Fund staff prepare a study describing the existing payments, exchange control, and exchange rate arrangements in the proposed 17-nation Preferential Trade Area (PTA) of Eastern and Southern African States, analyzing any payments obstacles to trade in the region, and recommending improvements in payments arrangements that would promote intraregional trade.1 This paper contains an updated and slightly revised version of the report prepared in response to that request.2

Ms. Hema R. De Zoysa, Mr. Robert L. Sharer, and Mr. Calvin A McDonald

Abstract

Following its independence in 1962, Uganda initially witnessed a period of considerable economic progress. Between 1963 and 1973, the annual average rate of GDP growth was 6 percent. Additionally, the balance of payments was in surplus during most of this period, and inflation was low. However, in 1971, a military regime assumed power under General Idi Amin, and Uganda moved away from the outward-oriented policies pursued in the immediate postindependence period. Local industries were granted significant protection, the size and involvement of the public sector in economic activity expanded considerably, and members of the Asian community, which had dominated the industrial and commercial sectors, were expelled and their properties expropriated. Efficiency and financial discipline suffered, leading to a significant decline in output of about 20 percent during the 1970s. As budgetary revenues collapsed, there was an increasing reliance on domestic bank financing, which intensified inflationary pressures. Despite mounting inflation, and the consequent appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, the official exchange rate and agricultural producer prices were kept practically fixed throughout the 1970s.

Mr. Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made significant progress in opening their economies to external competition through trade and exchange liberalization, often in the context of IMF and World Bank-supported programs. African liberalization took place during a period of increasing globalization of trade and investment, the conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, and the creation or expansion of a number of important regional trade arrangements in other parts of the world. These initiatives contributed to a revival of interest among African policymakers in regional integration, resulting in the establishment or renewal of regional organizations, such as the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Cross-Border Initiative (CBI), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Commission for East African Cooperation (EAC), and the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) (Table 1.1).

Mr. Andrew Berg, Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, and Mr. Mumtaz Hussain

Abstract

This chapter develops an analytical framework for examining policy responses to a surge in aid inflows, summarizes the evidence from a sample of five low-income countries, and seeks out general lessons that may be of relevance to other countries expecting scaled-up aid. The complete country studies are contained in subsequent chapters. The sample of countries focuses on strong performers in terms of institutions and economic policies. This permits the drawing of lessons relevant for situations in which, broadly speaking, policymaking is not dominated by macroeconomic disarray, misgovernance, or post-conflict reconstruction. The goal is to learn how to help those countries that are well-positioned, institutionally and in terms of the policy framework, to absorb large quantities of aid. An important number of such countries have emerged in the past decade or so, including in Africa (World Bank and IMF, 2005). The selected low-income countries satisfy two criteria: first, each (except Ethiopia) ranks relatively high on the World Bank’s indicator of quality of economic institutions and policies—the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA)—and second, each received large amounts of aid in the late 1990s and early 2000s, including a surge in aid inflows at some point over the period. The countries covered are Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda.1

Mr. Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

The 22 eastern and southern African countries covered in this study vary considerably in population, size, and economic profile (Table 2.1). Population size varies from fewer than 80,000 people in Seychelles to about 62 million people in Ethiopia. The average per capita income of about US$1,100 also masks large variations across countries. The Seychelles is the richest country, with a per capita GDP of about US$6,000 at 1990 prices, while the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) stands as the poorest country, with an income per capita of US$99 (a ratio of 60 to 1). There is also a wide variation in income inequality among countries. For example, the Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, varies from 29 in Rwanda to 59 in South Africa, the latter being among the highest in the world.