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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was undertaken by the Real Sector Statistics Advisor in the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) to St. Lucia during September 17–28, 2018, to provide advice to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on compiling supply and use tables (SUT) for 2016. The 2006 base year for the GDP estimates is outdated and does not reflect the current structure of the economy. In addition, there is scope to improve the input data and methodology used in producing the GDP estimates and to implement the relevant System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommendations.
Rasmané Ouedraogo, Rene Tapsoba, Moussé Sow, and Ali Compaoré
Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.
Mr. Matthieu Bellon, Jillie Chang, Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, Frederico Lima, Enrique Rojas, and Pilar Villena
This paper examines the impact of e-invoicing on firm tax compliance and performance using administrative tax data and quasi-experimental variation in the rollout of VAT electronic invoicing in Peru. We find that e-invoicing increases reported firm sales, purchases and value-added by over 5 percent in the first year after adoption. The impact is concentrated among smaller firms and sectors with higher rates of non-compliance, suggesting that e-invoicing enhances compliance by lowering compliance costs and strengthening deterrence. The reform’s positive effects on tax collection are hindered by shortcomings in the VAT refund mechanism in Peru, suggesting that digital tools such as e-invoicing should be complemented by other reforms to improve revenue mobilization.
Feng Wei and Jean-François Wen
Presumptive income taxes in the form of a tax on turnover for SMEs are pervasive as a way to reduce the costs of compliance and administration. We analyze a model where entrepreneurs allocate labor to the formal and informal sectors. Formal sector income is subjected either to a corporate income tax or a tax on turnover, depending on whether their turnover exceeds a threshold. We characterize the private sector equilibrium for any given configuration of tax policy parameters (corporate income tax rate, turnover tax rate, and threshold). Given private behavior, social welfare is optimized. We interpret the first-order conditions for welfare maximization to identify the key margins and then simulate a calibrated version of the model.
International Monetary Fund

The paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for the Kyrgyz Republic. Output is rebounding and inflation remains subdued. However, most end-December 2006 and end-March 2007 structural benchmarks have been missed, partly because of political tensions that slowed the legislature. The 2007 program, which targets 6½ percent output growth and 5 percent inflation, caps the fiscal deficit at 3.1 percent of GDP and maintains a prudent monetary policy. The government plans to implement delayed structural measures under the program, and strengthen external debt management.