This report provides the details of the IMF's projections and estimates on Ukraine's basic data; gross domestic product; utilization of gross domestic product during 1997–2000 (June); gross investment; output of major agricultural products; population, labor force, and employment; central and local government budgets; summary balance of payments, 1996–99; consolidated budget revenues and expenditures, 1996–June 2000; monetary survey; interest rates, 1997–99; services account, 1995–99; interest rates; accounts of the national bank of Ukraine; summary indicators of money and credit during 1997–99; tax summary; and so on.
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic situation in Ukraine has continued to improve in 2001. Real GDP growth is estimated to have increased from almost 6 percent in 2000 to 9 percent in 2001, mainly on account of double-digit growth of industrial output and a good grain harvest, resulting from favorable weather conditions and a lessening of government controls in agriculture. Fiscal policy through end-September 2001 was broadly on track, although indicators of revenue were affected by the accumulation of arrears on value-added tax refunds.
This 2003 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic developments in the Russian Federation remained generally strong, with a third consecutive year of considerable GDP growth, fiscal surplus, and large current account surplus. The economy continues to benefit from the earlier reforms and the post-crisis real depreciation of the ruble, as well as strong world energy prices. For a second consecutive year, Russian financial markets were among the best performing in the world, and rating agencies provided a series of upgrades in 2002.
This paper examines determinants of inflation in Ukraine during 1993-2002 in a cointegrating framework. Two basic theoretical models-a markup and a money market model-are tested. While broad money is cointegrated with the CPI for the whole sample and for early subsamples, the cointegration ceases to be statistically significant between 1996-2002, in part because of strong remonetization. The mark-up model offers a more consistent and well-fitting overall framework for 1996-2002 data, pointing inter alia to a greater role of administered prices in the CPI within a fairly mainstream inflation process. The "long-term" monetary transmission mechanism operates through the exchange rate and wages, but broad money clearly enters short-term inflation determinants. Prudent macroeconomic policies, grain harvests, and administrative decisions explain the sharp decline of inflation over 2000-2002.
Key medium– and longer–term fiscal issues faced by transition economies are reviewed, including government solvency and the sustainability of the fiscal–financial–monetary program. The paper aims to assist the design and implementation of future Fund programs and to contribute to the debate about fiscal policy in transition economies. After presenting a framework for evaluating the sustainability of the fiscal–financial–monetary program of the state, some numerical material is presented on public debt, (quasi–) fiscal deficits and monetary financing. Eight budgetary issues of special relevance to transition economies are considered next. The lessons from this study are summarized in a number of propositions.
'Crisis Shakes Europe: Stark Choices Ahead' looks at the harsh toll of the crisis on both Europe's advanced and emerging economies because of the global nature of the shocks that have hit both the financial sector and the real economy, and because of Europe's strong regional and global trade links. Marek Belka, Director of the IMF's European Department, writes in our lead article that beyond the immediate need for crisis management, Europe must revisit the frameworks on which the European Union is based because many have been revealed to be flawed or missing. But in many respects, one key European institution has proved its mettle—the euro. Both Charles Wyplosz and Barry Eichengreen discuss the future of the common currency. Also in this issue, IMF economists rank the current recession as the most severe in the postwar period; John Lipsky, the Fund's First Deputy Managing Director, examines the IMF's role in a postcrisis world; and Giovanni Dell'Ariccia assesses what we have learned about how to manage asset price booms to prevent the bust that has caused such havoc. In addition, we talk to Oxford economist Paul Collier about how to help low-income countries during the current crisis, while Donald Kaberuka, President of the African Development Bank, writes about how African policymakers can prepare to take advantage of a global economic recovery. 'Picture This' looks at what happens when aggressive monetary policy combats a crisis; 'Back to Basics' gives a primer on fiscal policy; and 'Data Spotlight' takes a look at the recent large swings in commodity prices.
This paper examines Ukraine’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The authorities have requested a 12-month SBA, which they intend to treat as precautionary. Their economic program for 2004 aims to sustain recent stabilization gains and advance some important structural reforms. Key objectives are to support economic growth; keep inflation under control; bolster debt sustainability; maintain an adequate level of international reserves; reduce credit risk in the banking sector; and improve the investment climate, including through wide-ranging tax reforms.