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NICHOLAS CRAFTS

The paper surveys the literature on the growth performance of the East Asian economies, evaluates the sustainability of that performance, and provides a preliminary assessment of their long-term growth prospects in the aftermath of the current crisis. It highlights special features of East Asian growth, including unusually high factor accumulation and a favorable demographic transition, but argues that total factor productivity growth has generally been somewhat disappointing. It argues that there are downside risks to the East Asian “developmental state” model, and that it may become less attractive as these economies mature.

Mr. David Coady, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this book provides new insights and potential policy responses for the key fiscal policy challenges that both advanced and emerging economies will be facing.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Since the mid-1980s, The Gambia’s economy has performed unevenly owing to external shocks, macroeconomic and structural policy slippages, poor governance, and weak institutions, the IMF said in its annual economic review. Undisciplined fiscal policies have increased the government’s recourse to domestic bank financing, which, in turn, has raised real interest rates, increased the domestic debt burden, and crowded out private investment. Weak policy implementation and governance problems also derailed The Gambia’s 2002 three-year program under the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility.

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta and Mr. George T. Abed

Abstract

This volume presents 18 IMF research studies on the causes and consequences of corruption, as well as how it can most effectively be combated to improve governance, increase economic growth, and reduce poverty. The authors examine how civil service wages affect corruption, the impact of natural resource availability on corruption, the impact of corruption on a country’s income distribution and incidence of poverty, and the effect of corruption on government expenditures on health and education.

Mr. William Lee, Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, Ms. Dora M Iakova, Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, Ms. Tao Wang, Ida Liu, Ms. Hong Liang, and Mr. Eswar S Prasad

Abstract

This Occasional Paper provides an overview of the main challenges facing Hong Kong SAR as it continues to become more closely integrated with the mainland of China. Section I provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments and the main policy issues in Hong Kong SAR. Section II examines various aspects of the ongoing integration with the mainland, and the associated implications for the structure of the economy, and for macroeconomic and structural policies. Section III examines the medium-term fiscal outlook under different policy scenarios and discusses alternative policy options to restore fiscal balance. Section IV reviews recent developments in the real estate sector and their macroeconomic impacts. Section V presents an econome tric analysis of deflation and its determinants. Section VI examines the factors behind, and the implications of, rising wage inequality in Hong Kong SAR. Section VII presents an overview of recent developments in the financial sector and provides an assessment of Hong Kong SAR’s prospects as an international financial center.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Over the first two quarters of 2010, economic activity in Asia continued its rebound from the global financial crisis. The speed of the recovery, as well as its composition, have remained quite different across Asia, with smaller export-dependent economies generally experiencing more pronounced cycles than larger economies with sizable domestic demand (Figure 1.1). In particular:

Ms. Hong Liang and Mr. Eswar S Prasad

Abstract

Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR) enjoyed impressive economic growth, high levels of income, and close-to-full employment for years until the Asian crisis of 1997 brought about the most severe recession in a generation. Following this, the economy rebounded in 1999 and 2000. Before sustained growth could take hold, however, the global slowdown in 2001 brought on another recession. After four quarters of negative or near-zero growth, the economy of Hong Kong SAR began to show signs of a pickup in the second half of 2002, although domestic demand remained weak. The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) disrupted economic activity once again in the second quarter of 2003. With the rapid containment of SARS, however, there are good prospects of a rebound in activity, supported by strengthening domestic demand and rising exports.