Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

  • Public financial management (PFM) x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in Tonga rebounded modestly in 2001/02, as real GDP growth accelerated from about ½ percent in 2000/01 (fiscal year July–June) to 1½ percent in 2001/02. Conditions in agriculture improved owing to record-high prices for squash and vanilla. Construction rebounded sharply with the assistance provided by the international community to rebuild structures destroyed by Cyclone Waka. Tourism and the service sector have been sluggish during most of the past two years.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s economy is estimated to have grown by about 2 percent in FY2013/14 (year ending June) driven by agriculture and construction, following a contraction in 2012/13 mainly caused by the completion of a large capital project. The external position has strengthened, following large grants and remittance inflows, which have bolstered international reserves. Real GDP growth is expected to average 2–3 percent in FY2014/15–FY2019/20. Although the progress of reconstruction in the aftermath of 2014 Cyclone Ian is slower than expected, the coronation scheduled for July 2015 and preparations for the 2019 South Pacific Games will support economic activity over the next few years.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This staff report on Tonga’s 2013 Article IV Consultation discusses the economic development and policies. Banks in Tonga have been fixing their balance sheets since late 2008. Shrinking the loan books and increasing holdings of reserve assets have prompted negative macro-financial linkages, and reduced business confidence. In response, the National Reserve Bank of Tonga has aggressively infused liquidity into the system, and stepped up risk-based supervision. Progress in improving the regulatory and institutional infrastructure has also continued, including inauguration of a credit bureau. Major gains have been made in budget transparency, the establishment of a Treasury Single Account system, and better prioritization of the budget.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses recent economic developments, economic outlook, risks, and challenges in Tonga. The Tongan economy has been rebounding since a contraction in FY2013. Growth accelerated from 2.1 percent in FY2014 to 3.7 percent in FY2015, supported by construction, tourism, strong remittances, and strong private credit, notwithstanding weather-related disruptions to agricultural production. The FY2016 real GDP growth is projected to remain relatively strong at 3.1 percent, driven by a recovery in agriculture and an increase in construction activity in preparation for the South Pacific Games. However, a protracted period of slower growth in advanced and emerging market economies, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, could weigh on Tonga via aid, remittances, and tourism channels.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
KEY ISSUES Context: Tonga’s economy is rebounding, partially owing to a recovery in agricultural exports. The outlook for tourism is also improving. The reconstruction from a recent cyclone is expected to lead to both a temporary boost to growth and additional financing needs. Risks to the inflation outlook and the external position are low. Fiscal Policy: The projected fiscal cost relating to the cyclone will be largely met by confirmed funding mainly from donor agencies. In the near term, the authorities should focus on reconstruction activities, while a medium-term fiscal strategy should aim at gradually stabilizing and then reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, in order to improve Tonga’s moderate risk of debt distress. This will require careful execution of investments related to the 2019 South Pacific Games. Monetary Policy: The deleveraging cycle of the Tongan banks appears to be ending, and thus National Reserve Bank of Tonga should prepare to gradually withdraw liquidity and tighten monetary conditions once the current signs of a recovery of credit growth are confirmed. The authorities plan to lower the cost of credit through supportive credit policies, including by commercializing the Tonga Development Bank. The successful implementation of such plan requires sound safeguards, including a robust governance structure and firm risk management and accountability frameworks. Structural Policy: Structural reforms to facilitate the functioning of credit markets need to be implemented with renewed vigor. The authorities’ intention to gradually phase out existing ad hoc tax incentives is well placed. The promotion of foreign direct investments should focus on business-enabling structural reforms, while the use of tax incentives should be minimized and well targeted.
Hidetaka Nishizawa, Mr. Scott Roger, and Huan Zhang
Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.
Hoe Ee Khor, Mr. Roger P. Kronenberg, and Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello

Abstract

Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

KEY ISSUESContext: Tonga’s economy is rebounding, partially owing to a recovery in agricultural exports. The outlook for tourism is also improving. The reconstruction from a recent cyclone is expected to lead to both a temporary boost to growth and additional financing needs.Risks to the inflation outlook and the external position are low.Fiscal Policy: The projected fiscal cost relating to the cyclone will be largely met by confirmed funding mainly from donor agencies. In the near term, the authorities should focus on reconstruction activities, while a medium-term fiscal strategy should aim at gradually stabilizing and then reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, in order to improve Tonga’s moderate risk of debt distress. This will require careful execution of investments related to the 2019 South Pacific Games.Monetary Policy: The deleveraging cycle of the Tongan banks appears to be ending, and thus National Reserve Bank of Tonga should prepare to gradually withdraw liquidity and tighten monetary conditions once the current signs of a recovery of credit growth are confirmed. The authorities plan to lower the cost of credit through supportive credit policies, including by commercializing the Tonga Development Bank. The successful implementation of such plan requires sound safeguards, including a robust governance structure and firm risk management and accountability frameworks.Structural Policy: Structural reforms to facilitate the functioning of credit markets need to be implemented with renewed vigor. The authorities’ intention to gradually phase out existing ad hoc tax incentives is well placed. The promotion of foreign direct investments should focus on business-enabling structural reforms, while the use of tax incentives shouldbe minimized and well targeted.

International Monetary Fund

Tonga’s economy showed recovery from recent shocks on the back of stronger tourism activity and fiscal expansion. In spite of generous grant inflows, Tonga remains at “high risk of debt distress” according to World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis. Executive Directors stressed that fiscal consolidation is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability, and encouraged authorities to set up a comprehensive debt-management strategy to limit the credit and currency risks. Directors welcomed the government’s policy to pursue structural reforms to promote private sector activity and restore fiscal sustainability.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Tonga is expected to revert to a moderate growth path in the coming years, after a contraction in 2012/13.