Economic activity is on the upswing in Tajikistan, bolstered by higher hydroelectric power production. The government is working to address the structural energy deficit and achieve energy independence, raise social expenditures, maintain a flexible exchange rate regime, and continue structural reforms. Medium-term fiscal consolidation will be essential while striking a careful balance between social and capital spending. Macroeconomic policies should shift from an anti-crisis to a post-crisis footing. Follow-through on structural reforms is essential both for continued donor support and for meeting medium-term macroeconomic objectives.
Zidong An, Tayeb Ghazi, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, and Mr. Aomar Ibourk
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and job creation in developing economies with a focus on low and lower middle-income countries along two dimensions: growth patterns and short-run correlations. Analysis on growth patterns shows that regime changes are quite common in both economic growth and employment growth, yet they are not synchronized with each other. Okun’s Law—the short-run relationship between output and labor market—holds in half of the countries in our sample and shows considerable cross-country heterogeneity.