International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Speaking before the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on February 1, IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus addressed the role of the IMF at the start ofa new century. In his remarks, Camdessus emphasized the institution’s ability to adapt to the challenges of a continually evolving global economy—in its response to both the needs of its members and the systemic needs of the global economy. He stressed that the IMF’s responsibilities to its members extended beyond crisis prevention— that is, its surveillance function—to include poverty reduction and crisis management. On the global front, Camdessus said, calls for reform of the international financial architecture implied greater economic policy coordination and cooperation among all nations and with international institutions to maintain global stability and reduce the incidence and severity of financial crises. Following are edited excerpts of Camdessus’s remarks. The full text is available on the IMF’s website (www.imf.org).
Using countries' de facto exchange rate regimes during 1985-2002, this paper analyzes the determinants of exits from pegged regimes, where exits involve shifts to more or less flexible regimes, or adjustments within the existing regime. Distinguishing episodes characterized by "exchange market pressure" from orderly exits, the estimated probabilities of alternative exit episodes indicate that crises are preceded by a deterioration of economic conditions. In contrast, orderly exits to less flexible regimes are preceded by long regime duration, a decline in financial liabilities of the banking system, and an increase in official reserves. Exits to more flexible regimes are associated with both emerging market and other developing countries, and an increase in trade openness and government borrowing from banks. The results are robust to alternative sensitivity analyses and have reasonable predictive performance, confirming that economic and financial conditions and regime duration play important roles in determining the future course of exchange rate regimes.
This book contains the proceedings of a conference held in honor of Robert P. Flood Jr. Contributors to the conference were invited to address many of the topics that Robert Flood has explored including regime switching, speculative attacks, bubbles, stock market voloatility, macro models with nominal rigidities, dual exchange rates, target zones, and rules versus discretion in monetary policy. The results, contained in this volume, include five papers on topics in international finance.