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EDUARDO FERNANDEZ-ARIAS PETER MONTIEL

This paper addresses the adequacy of post-reform growth in Latin America in the 1990s on the basis of international comparisons as well as historical and other relevant standards. The paper analytically explores and empirically tests a number of hypotheses to explain the perceived dissatisfaction with growth performance in the region. We find that there is no”growth puzzle” in Latin America. Growth has not been higher in the post-reform period not because of a failure of reforms to yield the growth payoff that they should have been expected to do on the basis of international experience, but because of the combination of an unfavorable external environment with the insufficient depth and breadth of reform. We also estimate the long-run growth payoff of macroeconomic reforms, the addi-tional gains that can be achieved by deepening this first generation of reforms, and the potential payoff from broadening the scope of reform into a second generation of reforms encompassing deeper structural and institutional areas.

Warren C. Baum and Stokes M. Tolbert

This paper elaborates the introduction of surveillance that gave the IMF broader responsibilities with respect to oversight of its members’ policies than existed under the par value system. The IMF’s purview has been broadened under the new system but, by the same token, its members are no longer obliged to seek its concurrence in changes in exchange rates. The continuing volatility of exchange rates, and their prolonged divergence from levels that appear to be sustainable over time, have been matters of growing concern.