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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

After slowing in the second half of 2011, global growth is stabilizing. Policy action in Europe and better-than-anticipated U.S. economic performance have eased market strains and revived capital flows to emerging economies, although conditions remain volatile. Downside risks continue to dominate the outlook, given still-fragile public and financial sector balance sheets in many advanced economies. Nevertheless, the global environment under our baseline—easy financing conditions and high commodity prices—remains stimulative for much of Latin America.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Growth in much of Latin America remains solid, although it slowed during the second half of 2011 under the combined effects of policy tightening and global uncertainties. However, many countries are still operating near or above potential, and global financial conditions and commodity prices remain stimulative. In this context, countries should continue to rebuild buffers, to regain fiscal space, preserve hard-won fiscal credibility, and increase monetary policy flexibility. Monetary policy, meanwhile, should shift into neutral and serve as a first line of defense in a downside scenario, complemented by macroprudential policies to address financial excesses.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Financial risks continue to loom over the world economy, raising questions about the potential impact on Latin America. This chapter takes an in-depth look at the question of how global financial shocks affect output in this region and other emerging economies by examining the country features that influence their impact, with a special focus on financial integration and fundamentals linked to external and fiscal sustainability. We find that external sustainability, especially exchange rate flexibility, plays a key role in mitigating the effect of global financial shocks. Moreover, the mitigation or amplification effect of deeper financial integration greatly depends on the flexibility of the exchange rate regime.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Latin America’s economic landscape is characterized by the presence of two large countries (Brazil in the south and Mexico in the north) with the potential to affect smaller neighboring economies significantly. This chapter documents trade linkages between these two large countries and their neighbors, and quantifies the economic impact of shocks stemming from these large economies. Results show important spillovers from Brazil to some of its neighbors, but not others. The analysis also finds that spillovers take place through the transmission of Brazil-specific shocks, as well as through Brazil’s amplification of global shocks. Central America’s trade linkages with Mexico are very weak, suggesting that real spillovers from the latter are small.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Mortgage credit across Latin America is growing very fast, albeit from a low base. Although risks do not seem imminent based on available data, vulnerabilities can rapidly emerge. For this reason, countries in the region should act decisively to close information gaps and strengthen oversight of the housing sector.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Assemblée annuelle, Communiqué du CMFI, Principes pour fonds souverains, Crise financière mondiale, Comptabilité à la juste valeur, Tensions financières et ralentissements, Crise des subprimes, Où en sont Fannie et Freddie?, Analyse des taux de change, Centres régionaux d'assistance technique, Assistance technique : fonds fiduciaires, Perspectives économiques africaines, Protection contre les chocs exogènes, L'actualité en bref.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Reuniones Anuales, Comunicado del CMFI, Fondos soberanos de inversión, Crisis financiera mundial, Metodologías contables, Impacto del estrés financiero, Crisis hipotecaria, El futuro de Fannie y Freddie, Análisis de tipos de cambio, Centros de asistencia técnica, Fondos fiduciarios de asistencia, Perspectivas económicas de África, Servicio para Shocks Exógenos, Notas breves
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Annual Meetings, IMFC Communiqué, Global Financial Stability Report, Sovereign Wealth Fund Principles, Global Financial Crisis, Fair Value Accounting, Financial Stress and Downturns, Subprime Crisis, What Next for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac?, Exchange Rate Analysis, IMF Technical Assistance Centers, TA Trust Funds, African Economic Outlook, Exogenous Shocks Facility, News Briefs.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

El crecimiento en buena parte de América Latina sigue siendo sólido, si bien se desaceleró en el segundo semestre de 2011 debido al efecto combinado de la adopción de políticas más restrictivas y las incertidumbres mundiales. Según nuestro escenario base, el crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe se moderará a aproximadamente 3¾ por ciento en 2012, desde alrededor de 4½ por ciento el año anterior. Para muchos países, el alto nivel de los precios de las materias primas y las favorables condiciones de financiamiento externo supondrán un viento a favor. En otros países, el débil crecimiento en Estados Unidos y otros países avanzados socios, o los problemas fiscales internos, reprimirán la actividad. En esta edición de Perspectivas económicas: Las Américas se ahonda en tres temas clave. Primero, el entorno económico mundial ha mejorado en cierta medida con respecto a finales de 2011, pero sigue siendo riesgoso ya que no se pueden descartar ni un recrudecimiento de las tensiones en Europa ni la probabilidad de un shock de precios del petróleo. En segundo lugar, las condiciones externas seguirán siendo favorables en gran parte de América Latina: el doble viento a favor que suponen la asequibilidad del financiamiento externo y el alto nivel precios de las materias primas probablemente persistirá por algún tiempo, pero no para siempre. Y tercero, esta coyuntura crea oportunidades para América Latina, oportunidades para incrementar la resiliencia y la flexibilidad que tanto ayudaron durante la crisis mundial de 2008-09. La información sobre estos temas amplía se amplía en secciones analíticas sobre los efectos de contagio regionales, las repercusiones de los shocks financieros mundiales en el crecimiento y los mercados inmobiliarios e hipotecarios de la región.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

Growth in much of Latin America remains solid, although it slowed during the second half of 2011 as result of the combined effects of policy tightening and global uncertainties. Under our baseline, we expect growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to moderate to about 3¾ percent in 2012, from about 4½ last year. For many countries, high commodity prices and easy external financing conditions will provide tailwinds. For others, weak growth in the United States and other advanced-country partners, or homegrown fiscal problems, will hold back activity. This edition of the Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere elaborates on three key themes. First, the global economic environment is somewhat better than in late 2011, but remains risky as renewed tensions from Europe and the likelihood of an oil price shock cannot be discarded. Second, external conditions will remain stimulative for much of Latin America: The double tailwinds of easy external finance and high commodity prices are likely to persist for a while, though not forever. And third, this environment creates opportunities for Latin America-opportunities to build on the resilience and flexibility that has served it so well during the global crisis of 2008-09. This edition also expands on these themes through analytical features on regional spillovers, the growth effects of global financial shocks, and housing and mortgage markets in the region.