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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains buoyant in a wide range of countries despite a continued worsening of the terms of trade of the oil importers.1 Against a background of an easing of demand for imports in advanced countries, average real GDP growth is now expected to decline slightly in 2005 from its strong performance in 2004. The slowdown in 2005, however, is attributable primarily to lower growth in most of the oil-producing countries following the exceptional increases in oil-production capacity established during 2003 and 2004, especially in Nigeria; non-oil-producing countries are expecting average growth of about 4.5 percent, similar to that observed in 2004. Nonetheless, the number of countries anticipated to achieve growth in excess of 5 percent is expected to increase, while the number growing by less than 2 percent is expected to decline. Real GDP growth in SSA is projected to rebound to 5.3 percent in 2006. Growth in SSA, however, remains below the levels observed in other developing country regions and is still insufficient for most countries to achieve the income-poverty Millennium Development Goal (MDG).

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

An easing of output growth among some oil producers is expected to lower real GDP growth in SSA during 2005 from the eight-year high in 2004 (Table 2.1). After exceptionally strong increases in oil production in Chad and Equatorial Guinea during 2004, output growth rates in these countries have eased this year; output in Nigeria is expected to grow by only 3.9 percent in 2005, down from the 6.0 percent it registered in 2004. Nonetheless, performance continues to be encouraging across a broad range of SSA countries, with real GDP growth in non-oil-producing countries expected to remain at 4.5 percent in 2005. Excluding South Africa and Nigeria, average output is expected to increase by 5.0 percent in 2005, and average per capita real GDP in the region to rise by 2.6 percent.1 Real growth in SSA, however, does not yet match the levels witnessed in other developing country regions. Moreover, growth in five countries (Central African Republic, Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, and Zimbabwe) has remained below 3 percent in each of the past four years, and GDP per capita is continuing to decline.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The average growth rate for SSA as a whole is projected to rebound to 5.3 percent in 2006 primarily because of rising petroleum output in oil-producing countries and some pickup in import growth in advanced countries. Output growth in oil-producing countries is forecast to increase significantly from 4.7 percent to 8.1 percent. This reflects stronger growth in Angola and Nigeria. In the latter, growth is expected to pick up to about 4.9 percent as a major offshore oil field comes onstream. Growth is also expected to be particularly strong in Chad.

Mr. Michael Blackwell

While the new Convention retains the principles of the original Lomé agreement, and maintains financing in real terms, it also reflects changing perceptions of how to promote economic growth

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

This paper presents the economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2005. Against a background of an easing of demand for imports in advanced countries, average real GDP growth is expected to decline slightly in 2005 from its strong performance in 2004. The slowdown in 2005, however, is attributable primarily to lower growth in most of the oil-producing countries following the exceptional increases in oil production capacity established during 2003 and 2004, especially in Nigeria. Non-oil-producing countries are expecting average growth of about 4.5 percent, similar to that observed in 2004.