Economic growth is estimated to have moderated further in 2010 to about 5 percent, reflecting slower growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors. The overall commitment fiscal deficit for 2010 is now estimated at 2.7 percent of GDP, about 0.6 percentage point of GDP below the program target. Monetary policy was expansionary in the first half of 2010, but was subsequently tightened. The current account deficit narrowed during the first three quarters of 2010 largely driven by an increase in oil exports.
Using a panel of 101 low- and middle-income countries with data covering the period 1980-2012, this paper applies various econometric approaches that deal with endogeneity issues to assess the impact of food price shocks on socio-political instability once fiscal policy and remittances have been accounted for. It focuses on import prices to reflect the vulnerability of importer countries / net-buyer households to food price shocks. The paper finds that import food price shocks strongly increase the likelihood of socio-political instability. This effect is greater in countries with lower levels of private credit and income per capita. On the other hand, while remittances seem to dampen the adverse effect of import food price shocks on socio-political instability in almost all countries, the mitigating role of fiscal policy is significant only in countries with low-levels of private credit.
La croissance reste vigoureuse dans la région en 2012, la plupart des pays connaissant une hausse de leur PIB (à l'exclusion du Nigéria et de l'Afrique du Sud). Les projections indiquent une accélération modeste mais généralisée de la croissance, qui devrait s'établir à 5,5 % en 2013 2014, en raison d'un renforcement progressif de l'économie mondiale et d'une demande intérieure robuste. L'investissement dans les secteurs axés sur les exportations demeure un moteur important de l'économie, et le rebond de la production agricole dans les régions touchées par la sécheresse contribuera également à la croissance. Les incertitudes qui pèsent sur l'économie mondiale constituent le principal risque pour les perspectives de la région, mais les éventuels chocs négatifs n'auraient probablement qu'un impact mesuré sur les résultats globaux de la région.
La croissance économique de l’Afrique subsaharienne devrait rester vigoureuse, grâce à l’investissement dans les infrastructures et à une abondante production agricole. En Guinée, au Libéria et en Sierra Leone, l’épidémie de fièvre Ébola a de lourdes conséquences, avec des répercussions dans les pays adjacents. Les risques externes pesant sur les perspectives globalement positives pour la région ont trait aux conditions financières mondiales et à un ralentissement de la croissance des pays émergents.
In March 2009, the Fund established a new Framework Administered Account to administer external financial resources for Selected Fund Activities (the “SFA Instrument”). The financing of activities under the terms of the SFA Instrument is implemented through the establishment and operation of a subaccount within the SFA. This paper requests Executive Board approval to establish the Republic of South Sudan Macroeconomic Capacity Building Subaccount (the “Subaccount”) under the terms of the SFA Instrument.
Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 5½ percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.
Growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain strong, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and strong agricultural production. The current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. External threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth.
South Sudan has suffered civil conflict, political instability and external shocks in the past three years. A steep decline in oil production and a sharp drop in oil prices have caused large shortfalls in foreign exchange receipts and government revenue. Continued high government spending led to massive fiscal deficits that were either monetized or financed through accumulation of arrears. The country is in a deep economic crisis with annual inflation peaking at 550 percent in September 2016 and a precipitous currency depreciation. Gross international reserves have dropped to about one week of import cover. A relapse of violence in July 2016 following the formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity three months earlier compounded the already existing humanitarian crisis and derailed the peace process. The hope is that the country charts a new course toward a broad-based and inclusive political process and economic development.